Argelio Jesús Abad Vigoa, the First Deputy Minister of Energy and Mines, took to the airwaves on Thursday during the Mesa Redonda program, attributing Cuba's electrical crisis solely to the oil embargo enforced by the Trump administration under Executive Order 14380, signed on January 29, 2026.
However, evidence suggests that Cuba's energy crisis was already looming large well before this policy was enacted.
In his televised remarks, Abad Vigoa stated that "no vessel carrying fuel purchased or acquired on the international market has docked at a Cuban port" for over three months. He added that the nation is running out of diesel, fuel oil, gasoline, aviation fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas.
He highlighted the installed capacity for power generation exceeding 1,400 MW—including 1,100 MW from distributed generation and 330 MW from engines in MOA, Patanas, and Mariel—that remains idle due to a lack of fuel, causing a daily average shortfall of 1,400 MW and between 1,800 and 1,900 MW during peak times.
In a contradictory statement, the deputy minister conceded that "if we had that fuel at noon, there would be no blackout, or the blackout levels would be significantly lower. During peak hours, the blackout levels would be 400, 500, 600 MW, which are manageable and can be distributed and planned differently."
This admission indicates that even with sufficient fuel, Cuba would still experience blackouts of several hundred megawatts.
What the deputy minister deliberately omits is that the Cuban energy crisis is longstanding and structural.
In October 2024, long before Trump's measures, a complete collapse of the National Electric System left more than half the population in darkness for nearly 100 hours.
By December 2024, power deficits ranged between 1,070 and 1,570 MW daily. From September to November 2025, deficits soared to between 1,800 and 2,147 MW, resulting in blackouts lasting over 20 hours across much of the country.
In December 2025, 97 distributed generation plants were already out of operation due to the lack of diesel and fuel oil, taking more than 1,000 MW offline weeks before Trump's executive order took effect.
The government itself acknowledged that "2026 will be difficult; there will be blackouts."
The roots of the collapse are structural: the seven main thermoelectric plants are 35 to 50 years old, operating at a 35-45% availability rate, far below the international standard of over 80%.
Between 2019 and 2024, the energy sector received less than 10% of state investments, while tourism absorbed 40%.
Cuba's domestic oil production is around 40,000 barrels a day, less than half of its needs, with a reliance on Venezuelan oil, which had already been declining before 2026.
Executive Order 14380 exacerbated an existing crisis by prompting Mexico—which accounted for 44% of Cuba's oil imports valued at $496 million in 2025—to halt shipments on January 9, 2026. Venezuela also ceased supplies following Nicolás Maduro's capture on January 3.
Yet, blaming these measures as the sole cause ignores decades of underinvestment and mismanagement of the electrical system by the regime.
The Cuba Study Group estimates that restoring the Cuban electrical system would require between $8 billion and $10 billion and would take three to five years, an unattainable figure for an economy the regime itself has driven into collapse.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Crisis
What has caused Cuba's energy crisis?
Cuba's energy crisis is largely due to longstanding structural issues, including outdated power plants, underinvestment in the energy sector, and a reliance on declining foreign oil supplies.
How has the Trump administration's oil embargo affected Cuba?
The Trump administration's oil embargo has intensified Cuba's existing energy crisis by cutting off vital oil imports from countries like Mexico and Venezuela, further straining the island's power generation capabilities.
What investment is required to restore Cuba's electrical system?
Restoring Cuba's electrical system would require an estimated investment of $8 billion to $10 billion and take three to five years, highlighting the magnitude of the challenge faced by the island's energy sector.