Carlota García Encina, a leading researcher at Elcano Royal Institute and a professor at Comillas Pontifical University, expressed on Tuesday's broadcast of Hora 25 on Cadena SER that the United States is unlikely to launch a military operation in Cuba.
García Encina's analysis follows remarks by then-President Donald Trump, who stated that a military intervention in Cuba "is not going to happen." This discussion takes place amid an escalating debate in Washington regarding the island's future.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas during Operation Absolute Resolution on January 3, 2026, has sparked speculation about a similar U.S. move in Havana.
Journalist Aimar Bretos posed the question, "Is a Venezuelan-style military operation feasible in Cuba?" The expert's response was definitive, yet she issued a warning.
"Cuba is distinct. Díaz-Canel is not the villain that Nicolás Maduro was. Nor is there a Delcy to be easily found in Havana. Cuba is a small island, the world's most aged nation, which holds no real interest for Trump, as it offers him nothing," she stated.
García Encina suggested that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, often seen as the architect of Trump's Latin American policy, persuaded the president to intervene in Venezuela with two key arguments: "oil and immigration."
In her view, Rubio would need to present an equivalent incentive for Trump to consider action in Havana. "We'll see what transpires, but I doubt there will be a U.S. military operation in Cuba, as it would be disastrous," García Encina added.
The researcher also highlighted energy pressure as the core of the U.S. strategy against Cuba. "Mexico continued to supply oil, and ultimately, they pressured them to stop," she noted.
She linked this energy measure to its impact on the current crisis in the country, emphasizing that it is "quite complicated and sad."
Cuba has been without fuel supplies from Venezuela, Russia, and Mexico for months, leading to daily power outages lasting over 20 hours and protests nationwide against the regime.
Despite Trump's remarks and García Encina's analysis, the military action debate lingers in Washington.
Senator Lindsey Graham speculated that "Cuba is next" following the intervention in Iran, while analyst Sebastián Arcos from Florida International University did not rule out a military operation due to the island's geographical and military vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that deploying troops to Cuba is unnecessary, as the regime will collapse on its own.
Trump predicted that "Cuba will fall soon" and hinted at a possible "friendly takeover," underscoring political agreements in light of the increasing weakness of Díaz-Canel and Raúl Castro's regime.
Carlota García Encina is a lead researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and a professor of International Relations. An expert on the U.S., security, and defense, she has worked in academic institutions. She holds a Ph.D. in History, collaborates with media, and analyzes U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations, and international scenarios, including Latin America and Africa.
Key Considerations for U.S. Military Intervention in Cuba
Why is a U.S. military operation in Cuba unlikely?
A military operation in Cuba is unlikely because the island offers little strategic interest to the U.S., and such an intervention could be disastrous. Additionally, there's no clear incentive like oil or immigration issues, which were factors in the Venezuelan intervention.
What role does energy pressure play in U.S. strategy towards Cuba?
Energy pressure is a central component of U.S. strategy against Cuba. The country has faced significant fuel shortages due to reduced supplies from Venezuela, Russia, and Mexico, leading to widespread power outages and public unrest.