The economic collapse in Cuba has evolved from a temporary crisis to a deeply rooted structural problem that cannot be resolved with isolated actions. This was highlighted by former U.S. Congressman Joe García in an interview with CiberCuba. He emphasized that without real guarantees and significant reforms, neither the Cuban diaspora nor international banks will be willing to invest in the island.
García's assessment is clear: Cuba is facing a functional bankruptcy. “Even if the Americans ease their pressure on Cuba, the country won’t recover because it is bankrupt,” he stated.
“The reality is that the diaspora will demand as many, if not more, guarantees than American investors,” García explained, refuting the notion that Cuban capital abroad would automatically rescue the national economy.
Financial Instability and Lack of Trust
One key factor in this distrust is the recent actions of the Cuban financial system. According to García, investors have been directly impacted: “Less than six months ago, all their bank accounts were closed, and all their dollar deposits were confiscated.” These kinds of measures, he stresses, obliterate any basic level of trust needed to attract capital.
“Everything in Cuba needs to be done… there is devastation on every corner,” he observed, describing a paralyzed economy that paradoxically also represents a chance for rebuilding, provided the right conditions are met.
Beyond the U.S. Embargo
However, the issue extends beyond the U.S. embargo. While García acknowledges it is a significant factor—“it is an essential problem,” he conceded—he insists it is neither the sole cause of the crisis nor the solution. Even in a hypothetical scenario where the embargo is lifted immediately, the country would not progress without restoring institutional trust, he noted.
He pointed out that access to international financing remains blocked. Cuba needs to open up to organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, as well as to international banking and infrastructure investors. Without this structural support, recovery is unfeasible.
The Political Dimension
García also highlighted the political aspect. He criticized the tendency of some groups to avoid negotiating with those who actually hold power on the island. “We want to negotiate the solution… but we don’t want to negotiate with those in power,” he remarked, questioning the lack of realism in certain proposals.
Moreover, he dismissed any scenario of external intervention: “I cannot impose on Americans that their children… go to die in Cuba,” he stated, referring to calls for a forceful solution, which he deemed unfeasible.
Internal Decisions as the Path Forward
The volatility of U.S. politics adds another layer of uncertainty. “Donald Trump… could change tomorrow and announce he doesn’t care about Cuba,” he warned, emphasizing the fragility of any strategy relying on decisions from Washington.
In this context, García stressed that the only viable solution lies in internal decisions in Havana. In his view, the Cuban regime must provide clear guarantees, starting with its own population. “First to the people of Cuba: how are we going to get out of this hole?” he posed.
He also pointed to the necessity of credible signals, both economic and political. Neither the international community nor the diaspora will trust promises without backing. “No one seeks investment because they want to… it’s because they need something,” he said, making it clear that the interest in attracting capital is driven by the urgency of the crisis.
García underscores that this is a critical moment that demands clear rules, asset protection, and verifiable guarantees. Only then, he adds, could investment be activated and access to international financing reopened. Otherwise, he insists, even lifting the embargo won’t prevent the continuation of an insolvent economy and a society mired in stagnation.
Cuba's Economic and Political Challenges
What are the main reasons for Cuba's economic collapse?
Cuba's economic collapse is attributed to structural issues, a lack of trust in financial systems due to recent confiscations, and insufficient institutional reforms. The U.S. embargo is a factor but not the sole cause.
Why is there distrust among potential investors?
Potential investors are wary due to Cuba's recent financial actions, such as the closure of bank accounts and confiscation of dollar deposits, which undermine trust and confidence needed for investment.
How does the U.S. political climate affect Cuba's situation?
The unpredictability of U.S. politics, exemplified by potential policy shifts, adds uncertainty to strategies involving Cuba, affecting the feasibility of relying on U.S. decisions for resolution.