Cuban Perspectives on Potential Political Shift: Three Standpoints

The conversation surrounding Cuba's political future has entered a pivotal stage. As international pressure mounts and diplomatic gestures from the regime become more frequent, three distinct perspectives are emerging among Cubans, both on the island and abroad, regarding what kind of political changes might soon unfold.

Recently, President Donald Trump indicated that Cuba "wants to negotiate" and suggested that reaching an agreement might not be particularly challenging.

Simultaneously, Lianys Torres Rivera, Cuba's ambassador in Washington, affirmed that Havana remains open to discussions with the United States government on key bilateral issues.

Emerging Cuban Standpoints on Political Change

Amidst this backdrop, the public discourse among Cubans—both domestically and abroad—coalesces around three primary viewpoints.

Demand for Genuine Transformation

A significant segment of Cubans fears that any potential international negotiation might result in superficial leadership changes without altering the fundamental structure of the system.

The central question is whether plans are underway for a genuine shift towards democracy or merely a political and economic deal with the current power holders.

Experts emphasize that a true transition should include certain basic elements:

• The release of all political prisoners
• Actual recognition of freedom of speech
• Redefining the role of the Armed Forces
• An audit of the military-business conglomerate GAESA

Urgency for Immediate Change

For many on the island, political debates take a backseat to the pressing needs of daily life. Visitors to Cuba often describe a scene marred by poverty, widespread litter, stress, and urban decay. When questioned about the population's desire for change, the response is frequently emphatic: "Yes, they want change."

This segment of the population is not concerned with transitional models or institutional formulas. Their stance is essentially pragmatic: any solution that alleviates the current crisis is welcomed.

Regime Elites Preparing for Survival

The third perspective belongs to those tied to the political and economic power of the system. These elites are already adapting to the potential for change, retaining privileged access to goods and services while exploring new paths for economic transformation, such as indirect control over private businesses and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

The Decree-Law 144, enacted in late 2025 and publicized in March 2026, which allows partnerships between state enterprises and private actors, is viewed by some economists as a signal to the outside world rather than a structural reform of the system.

The Great Debate: Transition or "Cubastroika"?

In Cuba, political power remains concentrated in the Communist Party, the state security apparatus, and the military business conglomerate GAESA. Some analysts caution that focusing negotiations solely on the exit of Miguel Díaz-Canel could lead to a mere leadership swap without meaningful systemic change.

They also note that, while the Castro family no longer holds visible positions, their influential networks still carry weight within the political and military apparatus.

In this context, the term "Cubastroika" is increasingly mentioned, suggesting a potential strategy for limited economic reforms without genuine political openness.

Potential Scenarios for Cuba's Future

Given the current crisis, most analysts consulted by CiberCuba identify three main scenarios for the country's immediate future:

• Negotiated transition: release of political prisoners, legalization of opposition, gradual economic opening, and a supervised electoral timeline.
• Disorderly collapse: system implosion without prior agreement, risking a power vacuum and external actor influence.
• External imposition: a scenario triggered by a migration crisis or internal upheaval necessitating international intervention, particularly from the United States.

Factors Accelerating Change in Cuba

Various structural factors are pressuring Cuba's political system:

• The country's GDP has decreased by approximately 11% since 2019.
• Over 2.7 million Cubans have left the island since 2020.
• The fall of Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela cut off subsidized oil supplies, which once fulfilled up to 90% of Cuba's energy consumption.

An Inevitable Transformation?

For many analysts, the discussion is no longer about whether Cuba will change, but rather how that change will happen and who will steer it.

Among Cubans closely monitoring the process, there is a concern that international negotiations might preserve the regime's economic and military structures, resulting in a superficial change without real democratization.

Simultaneously, others warn that the longer an orderly transition is delayed, the greater the likelihood that change will be imposed by external factors.