On Thursday, Cuba's informal currency market experienced notable shifts, with the euro increasing in value while the Moneda Libremente Convertible (MLC) saw a decline. This occurs amidst escalating social tension due to the severe energy crisis plaguing the nation.
Recently, the euro surged to 578 CUP, marking an increase of three pesos from its previous rate.
Conversely, the MLC dropped from 400 to 393 CUP, reflecting a decrease of seven pesos, as reported by the independent outlet elTOQUE.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains stable, holding its record value of 510 CUP per unit despite widespread protests across various provinces, notably affecting several municipalities in Havana. These demonstrations are linked to the ongoing energy crisis, which has left millions of Cubans without electricity for over 20 hours a day in some cases.
Interestingly, this social unrest has not significantly disrupted the dollar's stability, which has maintained its average selling value for more than ten days.
Why Is Cuba's Informal Currency Market Unfazed by Social Unrest?
The apparent calm in Cuba's informal currency market, despite the climate of protests and political tension, can be attributed to several converging factors in recent days.
Firstly, the market seems to be in a state of anticipation, responding to increasing signals from the United States regarding potential agreements or political changes on the island.
When rumors or expectations of major changes circulate, many market participants—such as resellers, intermediaries, and individuals handling large amounts of cash—tend to delay significant transactions to avoid selling currencies at prices that could change abruptly.
This behavior often leads to a temporary pause in price formation, resulting in apparent stability.
An immediate factor contributing to this pause is the operational limitations caused by the energy crisis. Prolonged power outages, exceeding 20 hours daily in many areas, directly impact internet connectivity and cell phone usage, crucial tools for conducting transactions in the informal market, which largely operates through Telegram, WhatsApp, or Facebook groups.
Reduced communication and coordination capabilities can temporarily lower transaction volumes, which also helps keep exchange rates steady for longer periods.
In this context, the market appears to be on hold, observing both the internal crisis and international signals before setting a new trend for currency values against the Cuban peso.
Exchange Rates as of March 12, 2026 - 8:01 a.m. in Cuba:
Dollar (USD) to CUP according to elTOQUE: 510 CUP.
Euro (EUR) to CUP according to elTOQUE: 578 CUP.
MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 393 CUP.
Rates published by elTOQUE have become a key measure for determining the real value of the Cuban peso against foreign currencies, as the official exchange rate remains disconnected from market realities.
Currently, multiple exchange rates coexist within the state system in Cuba. For legal entities, especially state-owned companies, the official rate of 24 CUP per dollar remains in use, primarily for accounting purposes in the state sector.
For years, the government also maintained a rate of 120 CUP per dollar for the exchange market directed at the public via banks and CADECA. However, the scarcity of foreign currency within the banking system limited the scope of this mechanism, failing to capture a significant portion of foreign currency purchase operations.
In response, the government introduced a new exchange segment in December with a "floating" rate that adjusts periodically, serving as a reference for currency buying and selling operations in banks and CADECA. Although higher than previous rates within the state system, it remains below values prevalent in the informal market.
The gap between official rates and those in the informal market highlights the persistent shortage of foreign currency within the state banking system and the strong demand for dollars and euros among the population.
Currencies are primarily used for emigration, importing goods, protecting savings against inflation, or making purchases in the growing private sector, maintaining pressure on the informal market.
In a scenario of sustained inflation, low state salaries, and increasing partial dollarization of the economy, the informal currency market's behavior continues to have a direct impact on internal prices and the purchasing power of Cubans.
Equivalence of U.S. Dollar (USD) Bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), based on March 12 exchange rates:
1 USD = 510 CUP.
5 USD = 2,550 CUP.
10 USD = 5,100 CUP.
20 USD = 10,200 CUP.
50 USD = 25,500 CUP.
100 USD = 51,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) Bills to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 578 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,890 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,780 CUP.
20 EUR = 11,560 CUP.
50 EUR = 28,900 CUP.
100 EUR = 57,800 CUP.
200 EUR = 115,600 CUP.
500 EUR = 289,000 CUP.
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why has the euro increased in value in Cuba's informal market?
The euro's rise in value can be attributed to various factors, including market anticipation of political changes and operational challenges in trading due to the energy crisis.
What impact does the energy crisis have on currency trading in Cuba?
The energy crisis, with prolonged power outages, affects internet connectivity and communication tools critical for currency trading, leading to reduced transaction volumes and temporary price stability.
How does the informal market affect the Cuban economy?
The informal market significantly influences internal prices and purchasing power, as it reflects the true demand and scarcity of foreign currency amidst ongoing inflation and economic challenges.