The recent military action by the United States and Israel against Iran has sparked questions about its potential ripple effects on other nations allied with or close to Tehran, including Cuba.
Nevertheless, Daniel DiMartino, an analyst and economist, suggests that any impacts on the island wouldn't necessarily lead to an immediate political overhaul.
In a virtual discussion with journalist Gloria Ordaz for Telemundo 51, DiMartino examined the conflict's potential ramifications, explaining why Cuba's situation is strategically, militarily, and economically distinct from Iran's.
“Iran is a militarily capable nation with a significantly larger economy that produces oil and possesses a robust armed force. Cuba lacks these resources,” the economist stated.
DiMartino highlighted a key structural difference between the two countries. Iran boasts a larger economy, oil production, and a capable military arsenal. In contrast, Cuba lacks these strategic assets, limiting its ability to respond to external pressures.
Possible Implications for the Cuban Government
Despite the differences between the two nations, DiMartino believes recent international developments could indirectly send a message to the Cuban government.
The analyst thinks that the show of force by Washington against a formidable opponent like Iran might serve as a warning to Cuban leaders about the costs of prolonged conflict with the United States.
In this context, he suggested that the current international climate might encourage Havana to reconsider its stance. “This could push the Cuban regime to say, 'Look, we surrender because we don’t want to end up like the Ayatollah,'” he remarked.
DiMartino posits that the Cuban regime might explore negotiated solutions to avoid increased international pressure.
The Context of Trump’s Statements
DiMartino's analysis comes amidst recent remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who indicated that Washington might consider a "friendly takeover" of Cuba amidst the island's severe economic crisis.
According to Trump, the Cuban government faces significant economic challenges, potentially opening the door for increased U.S. influence in the country. These statements have reignited debate about Cuba's political and economic future amidst its worsening internal situation.
Could Regime Sectors Negotiate?
In this scenario, DiMartino considers it possible that some sectors within the Cuban regime, observing events in countries like Venezuela or the current international tensions with Iran, might consider reaching an agreement with the United States.
The economist suggests that external pressure, combined with the island's economic crisis, could drive certain power players to seek alternatives to avoid further deterioration.
However, he cautions that even if negotiations or political rapprochement occur, they wouldn't necessarily lead to an immediate democratic transition.
The Main Obstacle to Political Change
DiMartino identifies the lack of an organized opposition within Cuba as the primary obstacle to any political transformation process.
Unlike other regional contexts where political movements with mobilization capacity or consolidated opposition structures exist, the economist argues that such a scenario is much more limited in Cuba.
“Political change in Cuba seems more difficult than in Venezuela because there is no active opposition in Cuba. There's nothing. Everything must be rebuilt from scratch,” he explained.
According to the analyst, this absence of a structured opposition makes any transition process more complex and prolonged.
A Gradual, Not Immediate, Transition
From this perspective, DiMartino envisions that any change on the island would likely be a gradual, supervised process rather than an immediate political transformation from within the country.
In his view, the most plausible scenario would involve some form of transition influenced or accompanied by the United States.
Nonetheless, the economist emphasized that any such scenario would largely depend on Washington's foreign policy and the current U.S. administration's ability to push for a transition process.
Economic Impact of the Iran Conflict
During the virtual meeting, DiMartino also evaluated the potential economic repercussions of the conflict with Iran on the international stage.
Among other aspects, he mentioned the impact of President Trump's threat to sever all trade with Spain, referring to their lack of support following the U.S. and Israel's strike on Iran.
The commercial and political tensions stemming from the conflict could affect various fronts of the global economy, a factor that also influences the analysis of Cuba's future amidst an increasingly uncertain international environment.
Ultimately, DiMartino argues that while Middle Eastern events might send political signals to other governments, real change in Cuba will hinge on more complex internal factors than mere external pressure.
Potential Impacts of U.S. Actions on Cuba
How might the U.S. strike on Iran affect Cuba's political stance?
The strike could be interpreted by the Cuban government as a reminder of the consequences of prolonged confrontation with the U.S., potentially encouraging them to reconsider their position.
What are the main differences between Cuba and Iran according to DiMartino?
DiMartino points out that Iran has a larger economy, oil production, and a strong military, whereas Cuba lacks these strategic resources, limiting its ability to respond to external pressures.
Why is political change in Cuba considered more difficult than in Venezuela?
Political change in Cuba is seen as more challenging due to the absence of an organized opposition, which makes any transition process more complex and lengthy.