The Cuban Central Bank (BCC) has decided to maintain its floating exchange rate for Segment III without any significant changes, keeping the U.S. dollar at 458.00 Cuban pesos (CUP) and the euro at 543.94 CUP. This occurs in a context where the informal market is reaching historically high levels.
While the official dollar rate remains anchored at 458 CUP, on the streets, the American currency has reached a historic peak, trading at 500 CUP for a week now. The current gap is 42 pesos per dollar, a discrepancy that has persisted and highlights the challenges faced by the official scheme in aligning with the actual market conditions.
The euro follows a similar pattern, though with a narrower gap. The BCC has set its rate at 543.94 CUP, whereas the informal market offers 560 CUP, leaving a difference of just over 16 pesos. Even though this gap is smaller compared to the dollar, it continues to provide incentives for the parallel market.
An interesting aspect is not merely the levels themselves but the apparent halt in changes. After several weeks of gradual adjustments aimed at bridging the gap with informal rates, the floating rate seems to have paused as the market solidifies its new highs. This partial freeze indicates that the BCC might be choosing to manage the pace of devaluation rather than allowing a swift convergence.
Since January, a recurring pattern has emerged: the informal market sets a new level, the BCC responds with staggered adjustments, narrowing the gap partially but failing to close it completely. Now, the informal dollar has stabilized at 500 CUP without any declines, while the official rate remains fixed at 458 CUP.
The issue is not only the numerical disparity but also the actual availability of foreign currency. Despite the lower official rate, real access remains restricted. In practice, the informal market continues to serve as the primary reference point for citizens and economic players.
The so-called "floating rate" has shown more flexibility than previous exchange rate frameworks, yet its managed nature limits its ability to anchor expectations. As the parallel market consolidates its highs without signs of correction, the official rate appears to be moving at a different pace.
The outcome is ongoing fragmentation: two prices for the same currency, with a gap that, rather than disappearing, becomes an entrenched feature of the Cuban economic landscape.
Understanding Cuba's Dual Exchange Rate System
What is the current official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar in Cuba?
As of now, the Cuban Central Bank has set the official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar at 458.00 Cuban pesos (CUP).
How does the informal market differ from the official exchange rate in Cuba?
The informal market currently trades the U.S. dollar at 500 CUP, creating a 42-peso gap from the official rate, reflecting the difficulty of the official system in aligning with real market conditions.
Why is there a persistent gap between the official and informal exchange rates in Cuba?
The gap persists due to the limited availability of foreign currency at the official rate, driving citizens and businesses to rely on the informal market as the main reference for currency exchange.