The UK's recent threat to seize tankers linked to Russia's so-called "ghost fleet" introduces a new layer of risk to Cuba's already precarious energy supply situation.
While the British decision does not directly target Havana, its ripple effects could further complicate the delivery of Russian oil to the island, which currently relies on sporadic and increasingly scrutinized shipments.
According to The Guardian, London has made it clear that it is considering military and legal options to capture Russian vessels operating under false or fraudulent flags. This tactic is used by Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions and continue its oil exports.
This escalation in tone comes at a sensitive time for Russia, whose oil revenues have significantly dropped, and for Cuba, which is enduring one of the most severe energy crises in decades.
Recently, the Russian government publicly affirmed its commitment to continue oil shipments to Cuba, despite warnings from former U.S. President Donald Trump about potential sanctions on countries supplying crude to the island.
However, beyond political rhetoric, the main challenge is not Moscow's willingness but the logistics required to deliver the oil without facing seizures, blockades, or prohibitive costs.
Cuba does not receive Russian oil through regular commercial routes or insured shipping companies. Instead, deliveries are made via old tankers, opaque operations, flag changes, and irregular routes—a scheme that aligns with the profile of the ghost fleet now under UK and European scrutiny.
The British threat raises the stakes for shipowners, insurers, and intermediaries, even if an immediate seizure does not occur. The mere increase in surveillance and the possibility of a vessel being deemed "stateless" under maritime law serve as powerful deterrents.
In practice, each voyage to politically sensitive destinations like Cuba becomes more expensive, slower, and less attractive.
Moreover, Cuba holds a marginal position within Russia's energy priorities. Compared to key markets like China or India, which absorb most of Russia's seaborne oil, the island represents small volumes and high risks without the ability to pay under normal conditions.
Amid mounting pressure, Moscow might choose to prioritize safer routes and clients, relegating Cuba to a secondary position.
The likely outcome would not be an abrupt supply cut but a reduction in the frequency and predictability of deliveries.
For an island already dependent on timely shipments to avoid massive blackouts and transportation breakdowns, any additional disruption in the supply chain exacerbates a crisis that has shifted from being temporary to becoming structural.
Impact of UK Actions on Cuba's Oil Supply
How does the UK's threat affect Cuba's oil supply?
The UK's threat to seize Russian-linked tankers could complicate the delivery of oil to Cuba by increasing surveillance and risks for shipowners and intermediaries involved in the shipment process.
Why is Cuba dependent on Russian oil?
Cuba relies on Russian oil due to its strained relationships with other potential suppliers and the economic embargo imposed by the United States, which limits its ability to access other energy sources.
What are the logistical challenges in delivering oil to Cuba?
Delivering oil to Cuba involves navigating through complex logistics such as using old tankers, operating under false flags, and avoiding detection, which increases costs and risks.