The American prediction market platform, Kalshi, has recently highlighted a growing belief that Miguel Díaz-Canel might step down from power before the year 2027.
According to a recent estimate, the "World leaders out before 2027?" market on Kalshi shows Díaz-Canel's odds at a "Yes" of 48% and a "No" of 53%, with approximately $2.7 million already traded.
Kalshi operates as a regulated platform in the United States where participants engage in buying and selling contracts tied to real-world events. In this system, the price (measured in cents) serves as a gauge of collective expectation about whether an event will come to pass.
This is not a survey or a traditional betting outlet but rather a financial market with indicators that evolve over time, which can be observed through a dynamic graph.
Within this global marketplace, Díaz-Canel is drawing closer to leaders with the highest estimated likelihood of leaving office, such as Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other heads of state like Viktor Orbán included in the list.
The surge in interest within this market is attributed to the regional context. Following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the subsequent capture of Nicolás Maduro, international attention has shifted toward the Caribbean, specifically focusing on Cuba.
Simultaneously, Díaz-Canel's tenure—marked by his rise through the UJC and PCC, his presidency since 2018, and his consolidation as the first secretary of the Party in 2021—has been characterized by economic crises, power outages, shortages, protest suppression, and mass emigration.
On Friday, the Cuban leader stated that Cuba "will not make any political concessions" in response to pressure from the United States government. These remarks came after President Donald Trump advised the Havana regime to "make a deal before it's too late."
In a speech at the Anti-Imperialist Tribune in Havana, Díaz-Canel declared that if Cuba were attacked, it would "fight with the same fierceness bequeathed by generations of brave Cuban fighters, from the independence wars of the 19th century, the Sierra Maestra, the underground resistance, and Africa in the 20th century, to Caracas in the 21st century."
During his address, he fiercely criticized Washington, accusing President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio of leading a policy of regional aggression.
Understanding Kalshi's Market Predictions on World Leaders
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated platform where users buy and sell contracts based on real-world events. The price of these contracts reflects the aggregated expectations of whether an event will occur.
Why is there increased interest in Díaz-Canel's potential departure?
The increased interest is linked to regional developments, particularly the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, which has shifted international focus to the Caribbean and Cuba.
How does Díaz-Canel's leadership affect Cuba's current situation?
Díaz-Canel's leadership has coincided with economic difficulties, including crises, blackouts, shortages, protest suppression, and a significant exodus of people.