In a historical shift for the first time in at least fifty years, the United States witnessed a net loss of immigrants, as revealed by a new report from the Brookings Institution published on Tuesday.
The study highlights that in 2025, the net migration balance turned negative, seeing an estimated loss of between 10,000 and 295,000 individuals, marking a pivotal moment in the nation's recent migration history, according to the Washington Post.
Researchers Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson from Brookings, along with Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute, largely attribute this trend to the immigration policies enacted under President Donald Trump's administration. These policies have significantly slowed the influx of new immigrants while increasing both voluntary departures and deportations.
The report points to several critical measures, including the near-total closure of the Mexican border, a reduction in visa issuance, increased consular fees, and the suspension of various humanitarian programs, such as those for refugees and asylum seekers.
Economists estimate that approximately 300,000 individuals were deported in 2025, a figure notably lower than the 600,000 deportations claimed by the Trump administration itself.
Nevertheless, the combination of voluntary exits and forced removals has resulted in the first negative migration balance since comparable records began.
This trend may persist into 2026. Brookings warns that the U.S. "is already on track to lose more immigrants than it receives this year as well," with long-term effects on employment, consumption, and demographic growth.
Projections suggest that the migration contraction could lead to a reduction in consumer spending by between $60 billion and $110 billion in 2025 and 2026, as the active population declines and worker shortages increase in essential sectors.
The report also notes that the slowdown in migration coincided with a drop in employment, making 2025 the second weakest year for job creation since the Great Recession, based on Department of Labor data.
Despite economists' warnings, the White House has defended the figures as a triumph in border security and sovereignty.
On social media, President Trump celebrated what he termed a "historic outcome: negative net migration for the first time in 50 years," claiming his border control policies "bring jobs and stability back to American workers."
However, the study's authors caution that reduced immigration could have adverse structural effects, as prior demographic and labor market expansion in the U.S. had been almost entirely reliant on immigrant arrivals.
"Sluggish migration growth implies less employment, lower GDP, and reduced economic dynamism," the report states.
Official immigration data for 2025 has yet to be released by the U.S. government and may differ from Brookings' projections, but experts agree that the trend change is already irreversible in the short term.
Impact of U.S. Immigration Policies in 2025
What was the net migration balance for the United States in 2025?
In 2025, the United States experienced a negative net migration balance, with an estimated loss of between 10,000 and 295,000 people.
How did U.S. immigration policies change under President Trump?
Under President Trump, immigration policies included the near-total closure of the Mexican border, reduced visa issuance, increased consular fees, and suspension of humanitarian programs.
What are the potential economic impacts of reduced immigration in the U.S.?
Reduced immigration may lead to lower consumer spending, a decline in employment, and decreased economic dynamism, potentially impacting GDP growth and labor market expansion.