Who Will Be Cuba's Transition Figure? Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga in the Spotlight of Trump and Rubio

The apprehension of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces not only marked the end of an era in Venezuela but also reshaped the regional landscape. In mere days, figures such as Delcy Rodríguez shifted from defying Washington to taking cues from the team of Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. They devised a "phased transition" to dismantle chavismo without inciting chaos. Former adversaries of the United States found themselves working with the White House to retain a semblance of power under international oversight.

Such a sudden shift—from defiance to compliance—has not gone unnoticed in Havana. As the Cuban regime grapples with its most severe economic crisis and faces its toughest political isolation in years, Washington is already contemplating its next move: facilitating a controlled transition in Cuba. In this equation, one name stands out as a potential transition figure: Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, the man who might achieve in Cuba what Delcy Rodríguez accomplished in Venezuela.

A Technocrat Poised for Change

Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a 54-year-old electronic engineer, currently serves as the vice prime minister and minister of Foreign Trade and Investment. His rapid rise within the regime is attributed to both his discretion and technical proficiency, as well as his political lineage—being the great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro. Unlike Miguel Díaz-Canel or Manuel Marrero, Pérez-Oliva's name remains untarnished in the public eye and is not linked to ideological excesses.

For years, Pérez-Oliva operated behind the scenes in the economic power structures. He was an executive at Maquimport and later took charge of Business Evaluation in the Mariel Special Development Zone, under the guidance of the late General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, Raúl Castro's former son-in-law and the czar of the military conglomerate GAESA. Backed by this apparatus, he ascended to the Ministry of Foreign Trade, solidifying his reputation as a dependable, pragmatic, and loyal figure within the military-family core of the Castro regime.

Balancing Continuity and U.S. Pressure

Amid power outages, inflation, and financial collapse, Pérez-Oliva has emerged as the face of a "controlled normalization" within the system. His low profile and technical background allow him to be perceived as a potential interlocutor with Washington in a full-blown crisis. Some diplomats view him as a potential figurehead for a negotiated transition, capable of discreetly opening communication channels without breaking away from the Castro regime.

This concept draws direct inspiration from the Venezuelan experience. After Maduro's fall, Delcy Rodríguez and other high-ranking chavistas softened their rhetoric, accepted international oversight, and collaborated with the U.S. to stabilize the country. Delcy's "pragmatic compliance" preserved some of the Bolivarian power. In Cuba, a similar shift seems feasible if the regime aims to survive without a violent collapse.

The "Cuban Delcy" or the Final Castro Heir?

Raúl Castro, at 94 years old, continues to pull the strings of real power from behind the scenes. Díaz-Canel holds the title but not the control. The promotion of Pérez-Oliva Fraga appears to reflect the old instinct of keeping power within the family while presenting a fresh, less ideological face for potential external dialogue.

In Washington, Trump and Rubio openly discuss the "inevitable fall of Cuba." Republican senators have made it clear that the goal is to replicate the Venezuelan model: collapse the regime through economic strangulation and push for an internal transition without direct military intervention. In this scenario, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga would be the ideal figure: a youthful cadre, with a trusted surname for the clan, and enough political leeway to comply without appearing defeated.

His future hinges on how long the system can resist. If the collapse progresses and the Castro clan opts to preserve its power through supervised negotiation, Pérez-Oliva could be the key to unlocking this "phased transition." However, if the regime chooses to resist at all costs, he may be remembered merely as another link in the revolutionary nepotism chain.

For now, his name is frequently mentioned in diplomatic circles when discussing who could act as the intermediary between Havana and Washington. In a regime where nothing happens by chance, his rise seems more strategic than symbolic. Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga could represent both the continuity of the Castro legacy and the beginning of its end.