Without Venezuelan Oil, How Long Can Cuba's Economy Hold Out? Experts Weigh In

The already delicate Cuban economy could be facing one of its most severe challenges if it loses the oil supply from Venezuela that has been a lifeline for more than twenty years. Analysts warn that a complete halt in these shipments would have devastating consequences for daily life on the island, leading to prolonged blackouts, inflation, shortages, and a continual decline in essential services.

As per a report by CNN en Español, Cuba currently relies on approximately 30,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily. While this figure is significantly lower than the peak a decade ago, it remains crucial to meet at least half of the island's energy requirements.

The outdated infrastructure and lack of maintenance have pushed the electrical grid to the brink of collapse, recently evidenced when more than half of the country was left without power for several hours.

"The situation would be one of total paralysis," warned Cuban economist Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, former director of the Center for Cuban Economic Studies at the University of Havana.

In his statements, the researcher was unequivocal, stating that without this oil supply, no economic sector could operate normally. Industries, transportation, and food production would be severely impacted in a nation where blackouts already exceed 20 hours a day in some areas.

Everleny emphasized that Venezuelan oil is not merely a gesture of solidarity but part of a political and economic arrangement in which Cuba has sent doctors, professionals, and security personnel to the South American country for years.

"The Cubans who recently died in military operations in Venezuela died for oil," he asserted, highlighting the human cost of this dependency.

Economist Pavel Vidal, a professor at Pontifical Javeriana University in Colombia, believes the island's immediate future heavily depends on decisions made in Washington and Caracas following Venezuela's political crisis.

Vidal suggests that the least damaging scenario would be for the United States to allow the continuation of oil shipments to prevent a humanitarian and migration crisis just 90 miles from Florida. An energy collapse in Cuba, he warns, would have immediate regional repercussions.

Jorge Piñón, director of the Energy Program for Latin America and the Caribbean at the University of Texas, presents an even grimmer perspective. He points out that if Venezuelan oil supply drops to zero, the Cuban economy would come to a standstill. "It would be total collapse," he stated.

Piñón explains that Cuba lacks the financial capability to purchase oil on the international market, and the few allies still sending crude, like Mexico or Russia, do so in insufficient and irregular quantities.

The prospect of replacing this dependency with other productive sectors also seems distant.

Vidal asserts that the Cuban economy does not generate enough foreign exchange and that neither tourism nor medical missions can compensate for the loss of the energy agreement with Venezuela.

Compounding these issues is the lack of credibility in the Cuban economic model and the country's high debt, factors that have limited support from other potential allies.

While Miguel Díaz-Canel's government maintains its rhetoric of resistance and blames the U.S. embargo for the crisis, experts agree that there are no clear signs of deep reforms to tackle such a significant shock.

For Everleny, the population is beginning to directly hold the authorities accountable for the lack of concrete solutions.

With nearly ten million people trapped between blackouts, shortages, and insufficient wages, the potential end of Venezuelan oil is not just a geopolitical issue. For many Cubans, both on the island and abroad, it represents the threat of an even harsher crisis, without a clear path to resolution.