Speaking from Air Force One, President Donald Trump asserted on Sunday that "Cuba is ready to collapse" in light of the island's economic turmoil following the apprehension of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
"Cuba has no income anymore," Trump remarked. "They thrived on Venezuelan oil, and that's over. I don't think we need to do anything: it seems to be falling apart on its own."
These comments from the President, made mere hours after the military operation in Caracas, have fueled speculation about a potential move by Washington against Miguel Díaz-Canel's regime. Nevertheless, Trump ruled out any direct intervention.
The partnership between Havana and Caracas has been crucial for more than 20 years: Venezuela supplied Cuba with up to 35,000 barrels of oil daily, along with financial and political support. This alliance disintegrated with Maduro's downfall, leaving the Cuban economy teetering on the edge.
Energy expert Jorge Piñón described the scenario as "a death sentence" for the Cuban model, while Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla claimed that Maduro's capture poses "an existential dilemma" for regional sovereignty.
Accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—a Cuban-American known for his hardline stance against Havana—Trump emphasized that his administration "doesn't need to do anything more" to hasten the regime's fall. Rubio had previously predicted that the demise of Chavismo would corner Cuba.
In statements to The New York Times, analysts like Ricardo Zúñiga, a former State Department adviser, suggested that Washington might simply "watch the collapse" of an economy reliant on external subsidies and plagued by power outages, shortages, and the migration of nearly a million people since 2021.
Despite everything, the notion of American intervention is gaining traction within a society worn down by decades of crisis.
"We want change, but from within, not imposed from outside," former diplomat Carlos Alzugaray told the American media. However, civil society increasingly demands some form of intervention to end the epidemiological, energy, and economic crises that render Cuba a "failed state."
Trump's statement—"Cuba is ready to collapse"—encapsulates a view shared within his administration: the end of Venezuelan oil marks the beginning of the end for Castro's legacy.
Key Questions About Cuba's Economic Crisis
Why is Cuba's economy in crisis?
Cuba's economy is struggling due to the loss of Venezuelan oil, upon which it heavily relied, coupled with enduring power outages, shortages, and widespread migration.
What impact did the capture of Nicolás Maduro have on Cuba?
The capture of Nicolás Maduro severed a vital lifeline between Venezuela and Cuba, which included oil supplies and financial support, exacerbating Cuba's economic instability.
Is the US planning to intervene in Cuba?
Currently, the US administration, under President Trump, has not indicated plans for direct intervention, instead observing the situation as the Cuban regime appears to face its own collapse.