In the realm of international politics, some decisions appear contradictory when viewed from the outside. The stance of Washington following Nicolás Maduro's capture is one such instance. For many Venezuelans and much of the international community, it’s perplexing why the United States seems to distance itself from figures like María Corina Machado while accepting a transition led by someone as closely tied to the regime as Delcy Rodríguez.
However, perhaps the error lies in examining this strategy through the wrong lens.
Understanding the Reasons Behind Trump's Cold Reception
When Donald Trump was asked about María Corina Machado, his response was notably indifferent and, to many, unfair. He did not question her courage or career, but made it clear that he did not view her as the right person to lead during this delicate period.
This isn’t necessarily a judgment on her democratic legitimacy, which is strong and real, but rather about the type of leadership Washington deems feasible during an extremely fragile phase. It’s not an ideological endorsement of Delcy Rodríguez, nor a denial of the opposition’s efforts, but a strategy for a transition without a sudden break.
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, put it this way: The United States will work with those who “do the right thing,” but the emphasis is on institutional continuity. The military will continue under the leadership of Chavista generals (under U.S. pressure). PDVSA, the state oil company, won't be dismantled but “remodeled in its leadership.” Ministries will carry on with officials who understand the system.
Beneath this narrative of cooperation with Delcy Rodríguez lies an implicit but clear threat. U.S. officials have repeatedly hinted that if Rodríguez or the military do not cooperate, there will be a “second wave” of American military actions.
The U.S. is not choosing the perfect model; it’s choosing the one it considers the least risky.
The Lessons from Iraq That Shape Current Strategy
The specter of Iraq continues to haunt every U.S. decision in the Middle East and Latin America. There, the complete destruction of the state apparatus did not bring democracy, but chaos, civil war, and radicalization.
In Iraq, the Bush administration made a fundamental strategic error: it dissolved the Iraqi army and implemented “De-Baathification,” a massive purge of anyone linked to Saddam Hussein’s party. The result was catastrophic. Hundreds of thousands of armed and unemployed soldiers joined the insurgency. The state collapsed. Basic services vanished. The insurgency evolved into ISIS.
In Venezuela, the approach appears to be the opposite: alter the power structure without collapsing it. Keep the military cohesive, maintain operational ministries, and avoid a purge that would push thousands of armed men underground.
It’s not a morally perfect strategy, but it is pragmatic. In foreign policy, pragmatism often prevails.
The Role of Oil in U.S. Calculations
It would be naive to deny the influence of oil. Venezuela not only possesses enormous reserves but also a devastated infrastructure requiring years of investment and stability to resume large-scale production.
From Washington’s perspective, the calculation is straightforward: without a minimum level of institutional order, recovery is impossible. But that doesn’t necessarily imply an indefinite occupation or a rejection of democracy, but rather a prioritization: first stability, then political normalization.
The idea of future elections isn’t ruled out; it’s simply not immediate.
The Dilemma Facing María Corina Machado
María Corina Machado symbolizes something very powerful: legitimacy, disruption, and justice. Precisely for these reasons, at this moment, she also represents uncertainty for those who fear a defensive reaction from the military establishment and the old Chavista apparatus.
This is not a personal disqualification, but a timing dilemma. A transition led by her would demand quick decisions on responsibilities, purges, and trials. This might be fair, and probably necessary, but also explosive in the short term.
Washington seems to be betting that this moment will come later, not now.
A Transition That Cannot Last Indefinitely
That said, it’s also evident that this formula only makes sense if it is temporary. A transition without an electoral horizon would quickly lose legitimacy, both inside and outside Venezuela.
The difference from Iraq or Afghanistan is that here we are not talking about rebuilding a country from scratch, but reordering it. International pressure, regional observation, and Venezuela’s own reality make it hard to imagine a provisional administration extending indefinitely without elections.
The transition will have to progress, and it probably will.
Conclusion: Not a Renunciation but a Sequence
The U.S. strategy does not abandon Venezuelan democracy but rather stakes a debatable, yet understandable, bet on order as a prerequisite. The United States isn’t choosing rulers, but trying to avoid a collapse that would make any future election impossible.
María Corina Machado is not ruled out; she’s postponed. And although this is painful for many, it does not equate to a definitive defeat.
The true test will not be who governs tomorrow, but whether Venezuela can reach free elections without reigniting the turmoil. That is where this strategy will need to prove whether it was prudence or merely self-interest.
Key Questions About U.S. Strategy in Venezuela
Why is the U.S. not supporting María Corina Machado?
The U.S. views her as representing uncertainty due to potential military resistance and disruption, opting instead for a transition without sudden changes to maintain stability.
What is Washington's main concern in Venezuela?
Washington is primarily concerned with avoiding a collapse that could hinder any future elections, aiming for an orderly transition that maintains institutional stability.
How does oil factor into U.S. strategy in Venezuela?
Oil is a significant factor, with the U.S. recognizing that without institutional order, Venezuela's oil reserves and infrastructure cannot be effectively utilized for recovery.