In the lead-up to Nicolás Maduro's apprehension, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at his skepticism regarding any significant military response from Russia if the U.S. were to take action in Venezuela.
On December 19, during a press briefing in Washington, Rubio's remarks gained renewed significance as it became clear that Moscow restricted itself to issuing statements and diplomatic protests, stopping short of any tangible actions.
In this meeting, Rubio was questioned about the potential risk of escalating tensions with Russia following Foreign Minister Serguei Lavrov's warning that it would be a "grave mistake" to blockade Venezuelan oil or attempt to overthrow the Chavista regime. Responding with a hint of sarcasm, the Secretary of State remarked:
"We're not worried about an escalation with Russia. We expected them to offer rhetorical support to Maduro. They're quite occupied in Ukraine. And if you're watching, Sergei [Lavrov], Merry Christmas!"
Rubio's irony, initially perceived as a diplomatic provocation, turned out to be uncannily accurate.
Since the onset of U.S. pressure on Caracas, the Kremlin has issued a slew of statements denouncing Washington's "imperialist aggression," yet failing to back these words with any substantial measures.
Among these, Russia filed a "diplomatic request" for the U.S. to vacate Venezuelan territory, and on January 3, Moscow "pledged an immediate response" to President Donald Trump, which never materialized.
Simultaneously, Venezuelan television broadcasted footage of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems, seemingly deployed, which were rendered ineffective by U.S. strikes on Caracas and La Guaira.
The pattern of "solidarity without intervention" mirrors, according to experts, the strategy Moscow adopted in Syria post-2020, where despite its historical backing of Bashar al-Assad's regime, it began to withdraw resources and limit its military involvement to symbolic gestures.
In both scenarios, defending its allies was confined to the diplomatic and media arenas.
Meanwhile, Western diplomatic sources and defense analysts agree that Russia currently lacks the operational capability to project military power in Latin America, a region the Kremlin itself acknowledges as a "direct U.S. sphere of influence."
The economic sanctions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing war's toll have narrowed Moscow's operational scope, restricting its support for Venezuela to symbolic gestures and diplomatic statements.
Furthermore, Russia's official rhetoric has shifted from initial belligerence to a more cautious tone. On January 3, Lavrov called for "dialogue" and efforts to avoid a "regional catastrophe," implicitly acknowledging that Moscow would abstain from intervention.
Days earlier, Vladimir Putin himself had promised full support to Maduro, asserting that "Russia will not abandon its allies." The unfolding events, however, contradicted his assurances.
The U.S. operation—completed within hours and with no casualties—affirmed Rubio's foresight: Russian power in the Caribbean was merely symbolic. As the Secretary himself noted, "Moscow's rhetoric is not a factor in how we consider this situation."
Experts in international politics view Russia's lack of response as a blow to its narrative as a global power. Analysts agree that Rubio's sarcasm accurately predicted Russia's lack of real response, highlighting its weakened influence beyond the Eurasian region.
For Washington, the outcome strengthens its regional dominance and underscores the decline of the Moscow–Caracas–Havana axis, weakened today by economic crises, sanctions, and internal divisions.
Rubio concluded with a smile: "Happy holidays, Sergei." What seemed like a casual remark soon became a geopolitical verdict: the Kremlin only engages in battles it can narrate, not win.
Understanding Russia's Inaction in Venezuela
Why did Russia not take military action in Venezuela?
Russia refrained from military action in Venezuela due to its limited operational capacity in Latin America and ongoing commitments in Ukraine. Economic sanctions have also constrained Moscow's ability to project power in the region.
What was Marco Rubio's prediction about Russia's reaction to U.S. actions in Venezuela?
Marco Rubio predicted that Russia would offer only rhetorical support to Venezuela without engaging in any substantial military actions, a prediction that proved accurate with Russia's purely symbolic responses.
How did the U.S. operation in Venezuela affect the Moscow–Caracas–Havana axis?
The U.S. operation highlighted the decline of the Moscow–Caracas–Havana axis, weakened by economic troubles, sanctions, and internal divisions, thus reinforcing U.S. regional dominance.