Cuban Economist Challenges "Excessive Consumption" Narrative, Highlights Historic Decline in Rice Availability

On Saturday, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal refuted the official narrative attributing the rice shortage to excessive consumption, asserting that the real issue lies within an economic system incapable of sustaining national production. Using official data, Monreal dismantled the claims made in the recent "Cuadrando la Caja" program aired on state television, criticizing it as a "propagandistic pamphlet" that blames the population for a shortage caused by the structural failures of the system.

In his analysis, Monreal highlighted that the total availability of rice for consumption has plummeted by 41.5% since the peak reached in 2005, according to figures from the National Office of Statistics and Information. For every 10 pounds available 18 years ago, only six are available in 2023, debunking any notion of disproportionate consumption. “What exaggerated consumption are they talking about?” he questioned.

The economist pointed out that national production of wet hulled rice began a steady decline starting in 2019, and although imports have been relatively stable, they have not sufficed to cover the overall supply shortfall. Monreal argued that an overly state-controlled agricultural policy is to blame, as it fails to provide the operational framework necessary for an efficient production system.

Monreal reminded that between 1990 and 1997, the rice sector underwent a radical transformation in land ownership, with a growing presence of non-state producers. However, after reaching a peak of nearly 189,000 cultivated hectares in 2009, the area under non-state ownership began declining, a trend that has worsened since 2019. By 2023, this area accounted for only 13.1% of the maximum recorded 15 years earlier.

The analysis underscored that the most severe reduction in cultivated area since 2020 occurred precisely among non-state producers, who had been the backbone of rice production in the extensive model following the "ordering" process. Monreal emphasized that the focus should not be on the dietary habits of Cubans, but rather on the economic system and political structure that perpetuate a permanent shortage of food that could be produced domestically.

The reactions to Monreal's publication reinforced criticism of the official discourse. Some comments pointed out that delays in publishing agricultural statistics are because they contradict the government narrative. Others suggested that the relative increase in rice consumption is due to a lack of alternatives on the family table, while several users described the "Cuadrando la Caja" program as a platform designed to distract and evade responsibility for the food crisis.

In a recent post, Monreal lamented the government's deliberate misinformation of the population regarding the severity of the agricultural crisis through systematic delays in publishing statistics and replacing verifiable data with propaganda. According to the expert, the current agricultural crisis is "deeper and more prolonged" than the Special Period, but the state conceals it by combining a simplified narrative with an intensified statistical blackout.

During the latest broadcast of the mentioned television program, Dr. Roberto Caballero, a member of the Executive Committee of the Cuban Association of Agricultural and Forestry Technicians, sparked controversy by criticizing the high consumption of rice in Cuba. He argued that one of the main obstacles to achieving so-called food sovereignty is the dietary habits of the population. Caballero also claimed that Cuba is "not in a position to provide a national solution" to the agricultural crisis due to economic constraints, advocating instead for partial solutions at the local level.