Beginning January 1, 2026, a significant shift in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), commonly known as Obamacare, will occur. The enhanced tax credits, initially introduced in 2021 as a pandemic relief measure and extended through December 31, 2025, are set to expire. These temporary subsidies dramatically lowered premiums for millions of low and middle-income individuals, enabling many middle-class households to access affordable coverage for the first time through federal and state exchanges.
While the basic ACA tax credits will remain, the system will revert to the pre-pandemic rules. This means reduced assistance per individual and stricter income limits to qualify for these credits. In practical terms, this change will result in hundreds of thousands of households receiving less financial aid, and many will no longer qualify for any federal support to help cover their health insurance costs.
Projected Premium Increases and Affected Demographics
The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), a leading authority in health policy analysis, predicts that without the enhanced subsidies, the average out-of-pocket premium for ACA marketplace enrollees could more than double by 2026. Their projections indicate a 114% increase, rising from approximately $888 annually in 2025 to about $1,904 in 2026 for those receiving only the standard credit.
Overall, around 22 million individuals will face higher premiums, with those in states using the federal HealthCare.gov platform being particularly affected. Various analyses and healthcare organizations warn that hundreds of thousands may drop their plans or downgrade to much more basic coverage options.
Enrollment Timeline: Who Will Be Covered by January 1?
The open enrollment period for most states' 2026 plans runs from November 1, 2025, to January 15, 2026, although some state markets may extend these dates. To ensure coverage begins on January 1, 2026, individuals must enroll or make changes to their plan by December 15, 2025. Enrollments completed after this date typically take effect on February 1 or March 1.
From January 1, those currently enrolled will notice the absence of enhanced subsidies reflected in their monthly premiums. Although tax credits will still be available, they will be significantly reduced. Experts advise carefully reviewing options on HealthCare.gov or state exchanges and, if unable to afford a silver or gold plan, securing at least a bronze plan.
Eligibility Changes and Impact on Immigrants
The new year will also bring stricter eligibility rules regarding who can receive tax credits and when they can enroll in the marketplace. Continuous enrollment throughout the year for individuals with incomes at or below 150% of the federal poverty level will be eliminated.
Furthermore, eligibility criteria related to immigration status will be revised at both state and federal levels. This will leave many immigrants, who work in the formal economy but rely on enhanced subsidies, in a more precarious situation.
Florida: The Epicenter of Premium Increases
Florida stands at the heart of this premium storm. The state has the highest number of ACA enrollees, with approximately 4.7 million participating in 2025, and a vast majority receive subsidies. Nearly 97% of Floridians in the Obamacare market benefit from some form of premium discount.
Compounding the issue, Florida has not expanded Medicaid, making the ACA marketplace the primary—and often sole—avenue for low-income workers, the self-employed, and small businesses to obtain health insurance.
Political Ramifications in South Florida
The increase in premiums on January 1, 2026, is also tied to political figures in South Florida: María Elvira Salazar, Mario Díaz-Balart, and Carlos Giménez. These representatives supported their party's healthcare plan, which allowed the enhanced Obamacare subsidies to expire and refused to join the latest bipartisan effort to extend these aids.
After their vote, a small group of moderate Republicans attempted to initiate an alternative vote through a discharge petition, but none of the Miami trio crossed party lines.
Criticism and Political Fallout in South Florida
Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly warned that "hundreds of thousands of people in South Florida" are at risk. Patient advocacy groups caution that over a million residents could lose their coverage or face significant downgrades.
Several analysts predict that the rising insurance costs will become a major issue in the lead-up to the 2026 legislative elections. For many families, January 1, 2026, will mean paying substantially more for the same health coverage or losing it altogether.
Understanding the Impact of ACA Subsidy Changes
What are the enhanced subsidies under Obamacare?
Enhanced subsidies were additional financial aid measures implemented in 2021 to reduce health insurance premiums for low and middle-income individuals during the pandemic. They allowed many to access affordable coverage for the first time.
How will the expiration of enhanced subsidies affect ACA enrollees in Florida?
With the expiration of enhanced subsidies, ACA enrollees in Florida will face significantly higher premiums. The state, having the largest number of enrollees, will see many lose financial aid, potentially forcing them to drop coverage or switch to less comprehensive plans.