On this Wednesday morning, Cuba's informal currency market witnesses a significant update: the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) is experiencing a rise for the second consecutive day.
In recent hours, the selling average of the MLC has climbed to 285 CUP, marking an increase of 15 pesos compared to its value on December 2nd.
Meanwhile, both the U.S. dollar and the euro have maintained their stability. The dollar remains at 450 CUP for the fourth day, a rate it reached last Sunday.
Likewise, the euro continues to be sold at 490 CUP, as reported by the independent outlet elTOQUE, which monitors the fluctuations of currency prices.
Resilience Amid Uncertainty: The MLC's Struggle for Survival
In recent months, the MLC has faced a period of uncertainty, marked by a continuous decline in its value within the informal market. Throughout much of 2025, its exchange rate notably decreased against the Cuban peso, driven by public distrust, increased use of cash dollars, and a reduction in products available at state-run MLC stores.
These factors fueled persistent rumors about its impending disappearance as a significant payment method in Cuba's economy. However, despite these warnings, the MLC has not vanished but instead demonstrated remarkable resilience.
In recent days, its value in the informal market has rebounded, surprising in a context where the dollar and euro continue to dominate informal buying and selling.
Understanding the MLC's Recent Increase
Several factors explain the MLC's recent rise: the limited availability of cash dollars, the necessity to purchase specific goods only available in MLC stores, and seasonal or situational demand driving its use.
Additionally, despite its decline, the MLC payment infrastructure remains operational; many bank cards still have balances in this currency, and some businesses continue to accept it.
The MLC remains an ambiguous monetary tool: in decline but still functional, questioned yet not entirely replaced. Its recent trends highlight the complexities of the Cuban economy, where no currency seems stable, and even those presumed obsolete can unexpectedly resurge.
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) equivalence according to exchange rates on December 3rd:
- 1 USD = 450 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,250 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,500 CUP
- 20 USD = 9,000 CUP
- 50 USD = 22,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 45,000 CUP
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP) equivalence:
- 1 EUR = 490 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,450 CUP
- 10 EUR = 4,900 CUP
- 20 EUR = 9,800 CUP
- 50 EUR = 24,500 CUP
- 100 EUR = 49,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 98,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 245,000 CUP
Government's Crackdown on Informal Currency Market
In recent weeks, the Cuban government has intensified its crackdown on the informal currency market and the reference rates published by elTOQUE. This offensive includes criminal investigations, threats to currency exchangers, and a communication strategy aimed at discrediting alternative sources of currency prices.
While this crackdown might appear as a distraction from the country's severe economic crisis, an article by economist Pavel Vidal published in elTOQUE on Monday suggests the real objective is to pave the way for a new official floating exchange rate, weakening the informal market and its key players.
This move would aim to channel remittances through official routes and gain greater control over currency flow. However, the government is resorting to coercive methods instead of competing with transparency and attractive rates.
Past policy failures, such as the 2021 monetary reorganization and the 2022 adjustment, have left the government in a vulnerable position. In both cases, the informal market exposed that official rates were disconnected from economic reality.
The informal rate has since become a crucial indicator of deteriorating purchasing power and inflation, amidst official secrecy.
The government now proposes a floating rate, but doubts persist about its real viability in a system that does not operate under market logic. Additionally, there are signs that the true interest behind formalization is to collect foreign currency rather than improve the efficiency or legality of the exchange system.
If the state purchases currency without offering it back to the public, it could exacerbate inflation even further, as Vidal concludes.
Finally, elTOQUE warns that without structural reforms, an allegedly floating official rate could lead to a new distortion, this time from within the state apparatus. Imposing an unrealistic rate or suppressing the informal market without providing better conditions would only bring negative consequences, such as a decline in remittances, the paralysis of private commerce, and greater shortages.
Questions About Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why is the MLC rising in value on the informal market?
The MLC is rising due to several factors, including limited availability of cash dollars, specific goods only available in MLC stores, and situational demand driving its use.
What actions is the Cuban government taking against the informal currency market?
The government is intensifying its crackdown through criminal investigations, threats to currency exchangers, and efforts to discredit alternative pricing sources.