The Cuban government is anxiously observing the increasing U.S. military pressure on Venezuela, coupled with Secretary of State Marco Rubio's firm stance against Nicolás Maduro's dictatorship. Experts warn that this combination could trigger a severe economic setback for Havana.
According to an EFE report, Cuba's alarm centers around the political and economic repercussions of a potential power shift in Caracas, its main energy and financial ally.
Analysts consulted by the agency highlighted that the loss of Venezuelan support would deal a significant blow to Cuba's already struggling economy.
Former diplomat and analyst Carlos Alzugaray expressed that there is a sense of "consternation" in Havana over the possibility of a U.S.-Venezuela conflict that could "spill over into Cuba," where the internal situation is already described as a "poly-crisis" characterized by inflation, shortages, and prolonged blackouts.
Meanwhile, Cuban-American Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, told EFE that the regime perceives "the risk of losing its primary ally and oil subsidies" precisely when it is facing an economic collapse.
Cuba currently receives around 32,000 barrels daily from Venezuela, meeting nearly a quarter of its energy needs.
Herrero added that without this supply, the island would be forced to turn to more expensive sources like Mexico or Russia, exacerbating inflation, shortages, and social unrest.
Moreover, he warned that losing Caracas as a partner would force Havana to rely more heavily on Moscow and Beijing, amid escalating tensions with Washington.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently called the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean "madness" and a "violation of international law," asserting that Washington's strategy is driven by "warmongering objectives" that will only bring "violence and instability."
Alzugaray, however, believes that the potential fall of Chavismo does not necessarily mean the end of the Cuban regime.
"Cuba has shown remarkable resilience. It might withstand the pressure, although the current challenges are much more severe than in the past," he stated.
Both experts agree that Cuba's economy is in an extremely fragile state, and the disappearance of Venezuelan support could accelerate its structural decline, directly impacting energy, transportation, and basic services.
Potential Impacts of Venezuela's Political Shift on Cuba
How could Venezuela's political changes affect Cuba?
Venezuela's political changes could lead to a loss of vital economic support for Cuba, particularly in terms of energy resources, which could exacerbate the existing economic crisis.
What role does Venezuela play in Cuba's economy?
Venezuela is a key ally, providing Cuba with approximately 32,000 barrels of oil daily, which constitutes about a quarter of the island's energy consumption.
What are the potential consequences if Cuba loses Venezuelan support?
If Cuba loses Venezuelan support, it may have to rely on more costly energy sources, increasing inflation, shortages, and social unrest, while also deepening its dependency on countries like Russia and China.