A high-ranking official from the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) recently asserted that the government has achieved a "moderation of inflation," a statement starkly at odds with the everyday experiences of millions of Cubans. These citizens are finding their wages increasingly worthless amid soaring prices, empty shelves, and a devaluing currency.
This claim was made by Ian Pedro Carbonell, the director of Macroeconomic Policies at the BCC and a member of the National Assembly, during an interview with the pro-government newspaper Granma. He argued that there are now "more favorable conditions" to advance the process of macroeconomic stabilization and particularly to establish an official foreign exchange market in the future.
However, this attempt to project economic control occurs at a time when inflation is hitting households harder than ever, with the informal dollar rate reaching record highs and domestic prices rising unchecked.
Carbonell stated that the fiscal measures taken by the government have allowed for the "moderation" of inflation, yet he failed to provide verifiable data or explain which indicators support this view. He also did not clarify how this supposed progress aligns with the severe loss of purchasing power experienced since the failure of the Monetary Reorder and the collapse of financial banking.
As he has in the past, the official reiterated that the official foreign exchange market will be a "key piece" in restructuring Cuba's economy and addressing long-standing economic distortions. Nevertheless, he offered no timelines, mechanisms, or sources of currency to sustain a credible exchange system.
Meanwhile, Cubans continue to grapple with prices that fluctuate daily, wages that are insufficient for even a quarter of the basic basket of goods, and a widespread feeling that life has become unaffordable.
Targeting El Toque as a Scapegoat
Although the interview primarily focused on the promised, yet still non-existent, foreign exchange market, Carbonell spent a significant portion of his responses attacking the independent outlet El Toque. He accused the platform of "distorting" the economy by publishing the informal exchange rate.
According to Carbonell, the exchange rate provided by El Toque lacks "economic legitimacy" and is driven by "speculative" dynamics. These claims align with recent official attacks led by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, presenter Humberto López, and the BCC, along with other state apparatus elements.
In his comments, Carbonell echoed the regime's narrative that the Informal Market Representative Rate of El Toque triggers "self-fulfilling prophecies," fuels uncertainty, and directly impacts the purchasing power of the population. Yet, he did not explain why millions of Cubans rely on this reference rate or how the state plans to restore trust in its own exchange rates.
Inflation "Tamed" in Speech, Not at the Dinner Table
The declaration that the government has managed to "tame inflation" comes as most Cubans face:
- Prices that update weekly.
- A dominant informal market.
- Power outages exacerbating living costs.
- Salaries that cover less than a quarter of the basic food basket.
The population's experience starkly contrasts with the official's description, as they endure a deepening crisis leading many to emigrate, sell their possessions, or rely on remittances to survive.
The gap between official rhetoric and real-life conditions continues to widen, and Carbonell's remarks, rather than reassure, highlight the institutional disconnect from an economy that seems to offer no relief or exit for its citizens.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Challenges
What did Ian Pedro Carbonell claim about inflation in Cuba?
Ian Pedro Carbonell claimed that the Cuban government has managed to "moderate" inflation, despite widespread evidence of rising prices and economic hardship.
How does the informal market impact Cuba's economy?
The informal market significantly influences Cuba's economy by setting exchange rates that many Cubans rely on due to the lack of a credible official market, contributing to economic instability.
Why is El Toque targeted by the Cuban government?
El Toque is targeted because it publishes the informal exchange rate, which the Cuban government claims is speculative and distorts the economy, although it offers a rate relied upon by many Cubans.