Cuban Government Vows "Official Exchange Market" Amidst Criticism of El Toque's Informal Rate

The Cuban government declared on Friday its intention to "establish the groundwork" for a legitimate exchange market described as "orderly, transparent, and functional." This announcement comes amidst escalating institutional attacks against the independent outlet El Toque, which the government accuses of distorting the informal dollar exchange rate in the country.

Published in Granma under the headline "The Central Bank Lays Foundations for an Official Exchange Market," the announcement attempts to frame the move as a "step towards macroeconomic stabilization," acknowledging the government's so-called "fiscal advancements."

Nevertheless, the political and economic landscape suggests that this new promise is part of a broader state campaign to discredit El Toque and its Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMI), a tool relied upon by millions of Cubans due to the lack of a genuine exchange market.

Coordinated Attacks from the Top

The Granma article echoes the official narrative recently promoted by regime figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Humberto López, and the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC), who have accused the independent outlet of "undermining the financial sovereignty" of the nation through "distorted indicators."

According to statements from Ian Pedro Carbonell Karell, a deputy and the director of Macroeconomic Policies at the BCC, El Toque "measures an opaque and inefficient market," and its rates "cannot be considered valid for determining economic balance."

Carbonell Karell argued that the state is "reclaiming sovereign control" over the exchange rate and is preparing "technological and regulatory conditions" to establish an official system.

The official narrative dismissed the independent outlet's methodology as "crude manipulation," asserting that the new official market will be the "cornerstone of economic transformations" within Cuba's socialist framework.

A Promise Repeated Since 2022

This is not the first occasion the Central Bank has pledged an "orderly and transparent" market. In August 2022, the entity introduced an official rate of 1 USD = 120 CUP, touted as a "balancing strategy," but it swiftly collapsed due to liquidity shortages and state control.

In 2023 and 2024, the government again promised to open a functional exchange market and acknowledged the failures of banking and monetary reform without presenting effective solutions.

Cubans, growing increasingly skeptical, have responded with irony and frustration on social media. "The only thing that needs changing is the system that doesn't work," quipped one Facebook user in a post by CiberCuba that garnered hundreds of comments following the latest acknowledgment of economic failure.

Absence of Technical Details or a Visible Economic Plan

Although Granma discusses "creating conditions" for an "orderly and transparent" exchange market, it fails to provide any technical explanations or concrete measures to support the announcement.

No timelines, operational mechanisms, or currency sources backing the new exchange rate are mentioned. It's also unclear if citizens or businesses will have the freedom to buy or sell dollars, or if the state will directly intervene in the market.

The only spokesperson cited, deputy and Central Bank official Ian Pedro Carbonell Karell, merely criticized El Toque's methodology, deeming their rates "invalid" due to reliance on an "opaque market."

However, the official did not elaborate on the methodology the government will employ to set the official rate or how it plans to ensure its transparency or sustainability.

The text also lacks verifiable data on the supposed "fiscal advancements" that would enable the implementation of the measure.

Conversely, economists and analysts point out that Cuba lacks foreign currency liquidity, has minimal international reserves, and confidence in the Cuban peso has been completely eroded following multiple Central Bank failures, like the official rate of 120 CUP per dollar in 2022 or the banking debacle of 2023-2024.

Ultimately, the announcement seems more politically motivated — aimed at demonstrating initiative and diverting attention from the crisis — than grounded in a genuine economic strategy.

Meanwhile, the informal market remains the only functional reference for currency exchange on the island, sustained by the supply and demand of foreign currency outside state control.

Experts and Civil Society: "El Toque Reflects Reality, Doesn't Set Dollar Rates"

Independent economists and journalists from El Toque have reiterated that their rates neither set nor manipulate the dollar's value but rather reflect actual prices in the informal market, a space that exists precisely because there is no functional state exchange market.

The outlet itself has denounced that accusations of "financial terrorism" and "speculative manipulation" are part of a harassment campaign orchestrated by the State Security, involving official spokespeople and media.

"Publishing verified information about the informal market is not financial terrorism; it's a public service," El Toque's editorial team recently responded.

Economic Reality vs. Propaganda

Despite the rhetoric of "macroeconomic stabilization," the country remains mired in a severe crisis: rampant inflation, crushed wages, chronic shortages, and unprecedented mass emigration.

The informal dollar rate recently surpassed 400 CUP and continues to be the only credible reference for both citizens and businesses.

The Central Bank's announcement, rather than a technical measure, seems to be a political maneuver designed to distract attention and reaffirm the regime's narrative control over the economy.

Meanwhile, the public remains distrustful of state financial institutions and seeks alternatives outside the official system.

Conclusion

The new promise of an "official exchange market" arrives at a time when the regime's economic credibility is at its lowest in years.

Far from stabilizing the currency or restoring public trust, the Cuban government attempts to blame an independent outlet for the collapse brought upon by its own policies.

And while the Central Bank talks about "transparency," Cubans continue to buy dollars on Telegram.