The informal currency market in Cuba saw a further increase in the prices of the dollar and euro this Tuesday, marking the third consecutive day of rising rates, as reported by the independent outlet elTOQUE.
After a period of declining prices, the informal market is showing signs of recovery, which might indicate a new upward trend. In the past hours, the sale price of the dollar climbed to 440 CUP, a 10-peso increase from the previous day's rate.
Similarly, the European currency rose from 460 to 470 CUP, reflecting a similar 10-unit increase compared to the prior day.
While it's still early to determine if this is the beginning of a sustained trend, the return of rising currency values underscores the informal market's role as a reliable barometer of Cuba's economic crisis and the pervasive mistrust in the national peso.
Exchange Rates and Economic Impact
The Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMi) shows that the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains stable at 205 CUP.
Exchange rates as of November 11, 2025, 6:20 a.m. in Cuba: According to elTOQUE, the USD to CUP rate is 440, the EUR to CUP rate is 470, and the MLC to CUP rate is 205.
Shifts in the Informal Market Dynamics
This change disrupts the downward trend that had taken hold in the informal market since late October when the dollar fell from 485 to 410 CUP and the euro from 540 to 450 CUP, a rapid decline resulting in a nearly 100 Cuban peso drop in just 10 days.
However, it now seems that the market is reacting once again to the pressures of demand and the overall uncertainty dominating the national economy.
The informal Cuban market tends to quickly respond to any shifts in supply or the perceived stability of the peso. Since 2022, there has been a persistent devaluation of the national currency, with only brief pauses or temporary declines that never manage to reverse the ongoing deterioration of the CUP.
Continued Demand for Foreign Currency
Ongoing inflation, the scarcity of foreign currency, and mistrust in the regime's economic institutions continue to drive demand for dollars and euros as safe havens. The lack of cash and banking connectivity issues on the island further fuel the parallel market.
While the government remains silent on the "floating rate" promised by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz at the end of 2024, the gap between the official and informal exchange rates continues to widen.
Equivalence of U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) as per the November 11 rates:
- 1 USD = 440 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,200 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,400 CUP
- 20 USD = 8,800 CUP
- 50 USD = 22,000 CUP
- 100 USD = 44,000 CUP
Equivalence of Euros (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
- 1 EUR = 470 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,350 CUP
- 10 EUR = 4,700 CUP
- 20 EUR = 9,400 CUP
- 50 EUR = 23,500 CUP
- 100 EUR = 47,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 94,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 235,000 CUP
Market Reactions and Government Influence
Last week, elTOQUE published an article explaining why the value of the dollar and euro in Cuba's informal market rises and falls periodically but rarely returns to its original level. This behavior is attributed to the economic phenomenon known as "exchange rate overshooting," which occurs when currencies surge after a change in expectations and then partially decline without reaching the previous level.
elTOQUE noted that this pattern has repeated several times since 2022, with speculative peaks followed by corrections. In 2024, the outlet identified coordinated digital campaigns by government-associated accounts aimed at temporarily distorting market perceptions and discrediting the Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMI).
In 2025, however, the movements of the dollar and euro have been more sustained and less abrupt, though the recent drop in their values might suggest an upcoming correction.
elTOQUE concluded by warning that while official propaganda can cause temporary drops in the rate, the structural causes of the peso's devaluation—inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust—remain unchanged, and the market ultimately readjusts to reality.
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why is the informal currency market important in Cuba?
The informal currency market is crucial in Cuba because it serves as a more accurate gauge of the country's economic reality and reflects the true demand and value of foreign currencies, unlike the official exchange rates.
What causes fluctuations in the informal market exchange rates?
Fluctuations in the informal market exchange rates are caused by changes in supply and demand, economic conditions, and shifts in public perception regarding the stability of the national currency.
How does inflation affect the Cuban peso?
Inflation erodes the purchasing power of the Cuban peso, leading to a higher demand for stable currencies like the dollar and euro as people seek to preserve their wealth.