Latino Support for Trump Plummets: Only 25% Approve as Florida Faces Uncertainty Ahead of 2026

Recent surveys indicate a notable decline in support for Donald Trump among Latino voters, a critical demographic that played a significant role in his 2024 victory. This shift raises concerns as the midterm elections of 2026 approach, with particular attention on Florida, a key swing state.

According to an October 2025 poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, a mere 25% of Hispanic adults now hold a "somewhat" or "very" favorable opinion of Trump, a steep drop from 44% earlier in the year. His job approval among Hispanics has also taken a hit, falling from 41% in March to 27% in October. Furthermore, a survey by UnidosUS, an organization representing the Latino community, reveals that approximately 70% believe the country is on the wrong track and hold Trump accountable.

Columnist Andrés Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald highlights that this decline is evident across various states. For instance, in New Jersey, a Trump-backed Republican candidate saw their share of the Latino vote shrink from 46% in 2024 to 31% in the November 4 state elections.

The primary reasons for this exodus are economic issues: inflation, housing costs, healthcare, and employment. Many Latinos feel that Trump's campaign promises have not been fulfilled, resulting in increased financial stress. Additionally, his administration's immigration policies have sparked backlash among Latinos, including citizens, due to fears of ICE raids.

While the decline in Florida is less pronounced—with UnidosUS reporting 39% approval among the state's Latinos compared to the national 31% mentioned by Oppenheimer—Trump's previously strong base in Florida makes it a potential risk area.

What are the implications? If this trend continues, Democrats could gain a substantial advantage in 2026, setting the stage for 2028. The message for Republicans is clear: winning the Latino vote once is not enough; it must be retained. A recovery in the economy might reverse some of the damage, but the window of opportunity is narrowing.

In summary, the Latino community, once a cornerstone of Trump's electoral success, is showing signs of disengagement. Although Florida remains relatively stable, emerging cracks could widen in the upcoming electoral cycle.

The Shift from Latino Support to Disillusionment with Trump

Since his first term, Donald Trump's relationship with the Latino community in the United States has been complex and ambivalent. His initial rhetoric, which included promises of strict immigration policies and a border wall, generated fear and backlash among millions of Hispanics.

Nevertheless, the strong economy and reduced unemployment during his early years in office unexpectedly garnered some support from a demographic that typically leans Democratic. This paradox deepened over time. While the White House touted economic benefits—higher wages, more jobs, and tax credits—Latino neighborhoods experienced increased reports of raids, deportations, and discrimination.

Media outlets and surveys captured a community divided: grateful for economic prosperity but hurt by rhetoric that painted them as a threat. By 2019, Trump managed to achieve a resurgence in approval, gaining support from half of the Latino population, driven by job growth and promises of opportunity.

In his 2020 campaign, Trump intensified his outreach, pledging millions of new jobs and asserting that Hispanic Americans would play an "incredible role" in his second term. However, this was insufficient, and Joe Biden won the presidency. Yet, the targeted messaging to Latino communities proved effective in 2024, particularly in Florida, where the Latino vote was pivotal for his reelection.

But the illusion was short-lived. During his second term, confidence eroded. Tougher immigration policies, arbitrary arrests based on racial profiling, and a sense of economic neglect amid the 2025 inflation crisis marked a turning point.

Even former Latino allies, such as leaders of the ‘Latinas for Trump’ movement, began publicly expressing their disillusionment and criticizing the president's authoritarian shift. Today, surveys reflect what is already felt on the streets: a fracture between Trump and a significant portion of the community that once viewed him as a pragmatic businessman capable of improving their lives.

The promise of progress has turned into frustration. Latinos, who once gave him the benefit of the doubt, seem to have concluded that Trump's American Dream was not meant for them.