The decline of the dollar and the euro in Cuba's informal market is intensifying. These key currencies have been experiencing consecutive days of price drops.
As of this Thursday morning, the dollar's value continues its downward trajectory in the Cuban informal market for the ninth straight day, as reported by the independent outlet elTOQUE on November 6th.
The US dollar has fallen to 410 CUP per unit, marking another 10 peso drop compared to the previous day, which also saw a decrease of ten units.
Since October 29th, when the decline began, the dollar has plummeted by 80 pesos over nine days.
Euro Also Facing Decline
The euro isn't faring any better: it has decreased to 480 CUP, which is 10 pesos less than the previous day. Over seven consecutive days, the euro has dropped by 60 pesos.
Meanwhile, the MLC remains stable at 205 CUP.
Current Exchange Rates as of November 6, 2025 - 6:56 a.m. in Cuba
According to elTOQUE, the exchange rates are as follows:
- USD to CUP: 410 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 480 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 205 CUP
Explaining the Fluctuations
An article by elTOQUE on Wednesday delved into the reasons behind the periodic rise and fall of the dollar and euro in Cuba's informal market, noting that these currencies rarely return to their original levels. This behavior is attributed to the economic phenomenon known as "exchange rate overshooting," where currencies surge after a shift in expectations and then partially retract without returning to their previous levels.
Since 2022, this pattern has been observed repeatedly, with speculative peaks followed by corrections in 2022, 2023, and 2024. In 2024, digital campaigns linked to the government were identified as temporarily distorting market perceptions and discrediting the Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMI).
In 2025, the movements of the dollar and euro have been more gradual and less erratic, although the recent declines might signal an impending correction.
elTOQUE warned that while official propaganda may temporarily lower the exchange rate, the structural causes of the peso's devaluation—such as inflation, fiscal deficits, and distrust—remain unchanged, and the market ultimately adjusts to these realities.
Currency Equivalencies
As of November 6th, the equivalencies for US Dollars (USD) to Cuban Pesos (CUP) are:
- 1 USD = 410 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,050 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,100 CUP
- 20 USD = 8,200 CUP
- 50 USD = 20,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 41,000 CUP
For Euros (EUR) to Cuban Pesos (CUP):
- 1 EUR = 480 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,400 CUP
- 10 EUR = 4,800 CUP
- 20 EUR = 9,600 CUP
- 50 EUR = 24,000 CUP
- 100 EUR = 48,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 96,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 240,000 CUP
Meanwhile, the fate of "the floating rate" announced since late 2024 by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero remains unclear. He had promised changes aimed at narrowing the gap between official and informal currency values.
Understanding Currency Fluctuations in Cuba
What is causing the decline in the dollar and euro in Cuba's informal market?
The decline is attributed to economic phenomena such as "exchange rate overshooting," where currencies rise sharply after a change in expectations and then settle at lower levels, without returning to their previous values.
How have digital campaigns influenced currency perception in Cuba?
In 2024, coordinated digital campaigns linked to the government were identified as temporarily distorting the market's perception and discrediting the Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMI).
What are the structural causes of the peso's devaluation?
The peso's devaluation is driven by underlying issues such as inflation, fiscal deficits, and a lack of trust in the Cuban economy.