The US dollar and the euro are experiencing a continuous decline in Cuba's informal market.
As of early Wednesday morning, the value of the dollar has decreased for the eighth consecutive day, according to an independent report from elTOQUE published on November 5th. The dollar now stands at 420 CUP per unit, marking a drop of 10 pesos from the previous day, which also saw a similar decrease.
The euro has also seen a reduction, now valued at 490 CUP, which is 15 pesos lower than yesterday. On the other hand, the MLC, the virtual currency utilized by the regime, remains steady at 205 CUP.
Current Exchange Rates
As of 7:54 a.m. on November 4, 2025, in Cuba, the exchange rates according to elTOQUE are as follows:
- USD to CUP: 420 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 490 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 205 CUP
The Phenomenon of Exchange Rate Overshooting
In an article published this Wednesday, elTOQUE delves into why the dollar and euro in Cuba’s informal market often rise and fall but seldom return to previous levels. This behavior is attributed to the economic phenomenon known as "exchange rate overshooting," where currencies initially surge after a shift in expectations and then partially retreat without reaching their former level.
Since 2022, this pattern has recurred several times, with speculative peaks followed by corrections in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Additionally, in 2024, the outlet identified coordinated digital campaigns from accounts linked to the government aimed at temporarily distorting market perceptions and discrediting the Informal Market's Representative Rate (TRMI).
Throughout 2025, the movement of the dollar and euro has been more stable and less volatile, though the recent decline might hint at an impending correction. elTOQUE warns that while official propaganda can temporarily lower the rate, the structural causes of the peso's devaluation—inflation, fiscal deficit, and lack of trust—remain unaddressed, causing the market to eventually adjust to reality.
Currency Equivalences
Here are the equivalences of US dollar bills to Cuban pesos as of November 5th:
- 1 USD = 420 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,100 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,200 CUP
- 20 USD = 8,400 CUP
- 50 USD = 21,000 CUP
- 100 USD = 42,000 CUP
For the euro to Cuban pesos:
- 1 EUR = 490 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,450 CUP
- 10 EUR = 4,900 CUP
- 20 EUR = 9,800 CUP
- 50 EUR = 24,500 CUP
- 100 EUR = 49,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 98,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 245,000 CUP
Meanwhile, there has been no update on "the floating rate" promised by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero since late 2024, which aimed to narrow the gap between the official and informal currency values.
FAQs on Cuba's Currency Market
Why is the US dollar declining in Cuba's informal market?
The decline is attributed to economic phenomena like exchange rate overshooting, alongside temporary effects from government-driven campaigns that influence market perceptions.
What is exchange rate overshooting?
Exchange rate overshooting is when currency values initially spike due to changing expectations and then partially decline without reverting to prior levels, creating volatility in the market.
What are the structural causes of peso devaluation in Cuba?
The primary structural causes include inflation, a fiscal deficit, and widespread distrust in the government's economic policies.