The value of the U.S. dollar continued its downward slide in Cuba's informal market this Tuesday, extending a bearish trend that has persisted for over a week. This ongoing decline has left both currency buyers and sellers across the island on edge.
According to data from El Toque, which provides a representative rate for the informal market, the dollar opened today at 430 Cuban pesos (CUP), marking a ten-peso drop from the previous day.
This fall underscores a downward trend that, as of now, lacks a clear explanation grounded in the country's economic fundamentals.
Meanwhile, the euro has remained steady at 500 CUP, and the freely convertible currency (MLC) has decreased by another five pesos, now standing at 200 CUP per unit, its lowest in several weeks.
Informal Exchange Rates in Cuba
Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 05:54
USD to CUP Exchange Rate: 430 CUP
EUR to CUP Exchange Rate: 500 CUP
MLC to CUP Exchange Rate: 200 CUP
Currency Equivalence According to the Black Market
U.S. Dollar (USD → CUP)
1 USD = 430 CUP
5 USD = 2,150 CUP
10 USD = 4,300 CUP
20 USD = 8,600 CUP
50 USD = 21,500 CUP
100 USD = 43,000 CUP
Euro (EUR → CUP)
5 EUR = 2,500 CUP
10 EUR = 5,000 CUP
20 EUR = 10,000 CUP
50 EUR = 25,000 CUP
100 EUR = 50,000 CUP
200 EUR = 100,000 CUP
500 EUR = 250,000 CUP
Unexplained Bearish Streak
In just over a week, the dollar has plummeted by more than 50 pesos in the parallel market, a drop of roughly 10% from its late October highs.
Economists consulted indicate that there is no structural change that would justify this sudden appreciation of the Cuban peso: inflation remains high, the cost of food and services continues to rise, and the government has not introduced any significant monetary policies.
Economist Pedro Monreal recently suggested that anticipation of increased remittances might be contributing to the decline, though he cautioned that any real impact would likely be minimal and short-lived.
Other experts and users have pointed to psychological factors, data biases, or even potential indirect intervention or manipulation of the informal market, especially following official campaigns against El Toque, which has been accused by the regime of "influencing" currency values.
Rising Prices Despite Dollar Decline
While the dollar's value is dropping, the prices of basic goods continue to rise. In agricultural markets and the black market, items like rice, pork, oil, and root vegetables cost more than they did a week ago.
This contradiction amplifies public skepticism. Many Cubans question how the dollar can depreciate while prices in CUP climb. On social media, a phrase from the Special Period resurfaces: “The dollar doesn’t fall, it bends down to gain momentum.”
An Opaque and Volatile Market
Analysts agree that Cuba's informal market is not governed by stable supply and demand laws but by perceptions, rumors, and political reactions.
The current decline might just be a temporary correction before another surge, in a context of rampant inflation, scarce foreign currency, and widespread distrust of the Cuban peso.
For now, the dollar continues to decrease, but on the streets, no one is celebrating: Cuban money remains insufficient, and prices continue to reflect the true measure of the crisis.
FAQs on the Cuban Informal Market and Dollar Decline
Why is the U.S. dollar declining in Cuba's informal market?
The decline lacks a clear economic explanation, but factors such as psychological influences, data biases, and potential market manipulation are being considered.
How does the informal market in Cuba operate?
Cuba's informal market is mainly driven by perceptions, rumors, and political reactions, rather than stable supply and demand laws.
What is the impact of the dollar's decline on Cuban prices?
Even as the dollar's value drops, the prices of essential goods continue to rise, exacerbating public skepticism and financial strain.