How Cuban Meteorologist José Rubiera Views Tropical Storm Melissa's Development

Esteemed Cuban meteorologist, José Rubiera, issued a warning on Tuesday regarding the progression of Tropical Storm Melissa. Through his YouTube channel, Rubiera emphasized the importance of monitoring the storm closely in the coming days due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding its path and development.

Rubiera, known for his expertise in tracking hurricanes in the Caribbean, stressed the importance of staying informed: “We need to be well-informed because Melissa will linger for several days.” He cautioned that although the storm currently poses no immediate threat to Cuba, its evolution could alter that scenario in the near future.

Warm Waters Fueling the Storm's Growth

The meteorologist explained that Melissa is currently situated over the central Caribbean, where the warm waters are conducive to its strengthening. “The storm will develop over the next 48 to 72 hours as it moves slowly over very warm waters,” he noted. Although all conditions for an explosive development are not yet in place, the system shows signs of gradual intensification. “Its structure is quite healthy,” Rubiera commented, adding, “rapid development is hindered by some upper-atmosphere winds.” Despite these unfavorable winds, Melissa is expected to slowly but steadily gain organization and strength.

Uncertainty in the Storm's Path and Slow Movement

Rubiera highlighted the significant uncertainty regarding the storm's trajectory. “We can't determine its exact direction, which leaves us in a waiting period that might last several days,” he explained. The storm is moving extremely slowly, nearly stalling, due to the lack of a guiding air current. “This slow pace could also result in stationary periods,” he warned, which could prolong heavy rains and thunderstorms in certain Caribbean areas. Rubiera reiterated that it's currently impossible to predict Melissa’s final path: “After stalling, we don’t know where it’s headed next. We lack the data to make that determination.”

Forecast Models Show Discrepancy

Rubiera reviewed the main prediction models, emphasizing their significant divergence. “All models demonstrate a significant discrepancy. Slow movement and stalling due to the absence of a guiding current,” he reiterated. Specifically, he noted changes in the GFS (Global Forecast System) model: “The GFS model has shown some changes recently, with more westerly paths than before.” Conversely, the European model shifted some paths northward while maintaining a general westward direction.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an unusual trajectory cone that includes a circle, reflecting Melissa's projected slow movement over the next 72 hours. Amid this uncertainty, Rubiera stressed that the best course of action for the public is to stay informed with regular weather updates. “In three, four, or five days, when a guiding current emerges, we'll have a clearer idea of the storm's direction. Until then, it’s crucial to stay updated daily,” he concluded.

On Wednesday morning, October 22, the Forecast Center of Cuba’s Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) released Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 3, emphasizing that despite Melissa's slow movement over the central Caribbean Sea, the system poses a “potential danger” to the island, necessitating close monitoring of its progress.