Cuba Faces Unprecedented Population Decline in 2024

Cuba is grappling with an unparalleled demographic crisis. In 2024, the nation experienced a loss of over 300,000 residents and recorded its lowest birth rate in decades, according to the latest data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). These figures highlight a rapidly accelerating population decline, exacerbated by the economic crisis, widespread emigration, and an aging population.

ONEI's official statistics reveal that Cuba's effective population at the end of 2023 was 10,055,968, marking a 10.1% decrease compared to 2020. Over the past three years, the country has seen a loss of more than a million people due to negative migration balances and a steep drop in birth rates. Between 2021 and 2023, the natural population growth was negative, with 284,891 births compared to 405,512 deaths, resulting in a net decrease of 120,621 people.

The Exodus: A Major Factor in Population Decline

Mass emigration has significantly contributed to this population decline. The net migration balance during this period was -1,005,006, with over a million Cubans leaving and only 6,263 immigrants entering the country. By December 31, 2023, around 1,249,733 Cubans were living abroad, and approximately 75% of them did not meet residency requirements in Cuba.

Record Low Birth Rates

One of the most alarming aspects of the report is the declining birth rate. In 2022, there were 95,403 births, equating to 8.6 births per 1,000 people. Preliminary estimates for 2024 suggest a further drop, with only 71,374 births and a rate of 7.2 births per 1,000 inhabitants, the lowest in the island's recent history. Factors contributing to this include the mass departure of young people of childbearing age, the lack of economic and social incentives to start families, and the scarcity of basic resources such as housing and food. Additionally, the aging population further reduces the proportion of people of fertile age.

An Aging Nation

Cuba has one of the most aged populations in Latin America. In 2023, 22.3% of the population was 60 years or older, while those under 15 years represented less than 15%. This demographic imbalance severely impacts the pension system, labor market, and healthcare services, which must adjust to a predominantly elderly population. Projections indicate that if these trends persist, over 30% of Cubans could be over 60 by 2050. By the end of the century, some studies suggest Cuba's population could fall below six million, marking an unprecedented demographic contraction in the region.

Labor Market Collapse

The shrinking workforce has had a considerable impact on the labor market. According to ONEI, the working-age population (15-64 years) has decreased significantly in recent years, affecting economic growth and the sustainability of the labor system. The labor force participation rate dropped to approximately 63.5% in 2023, with a rise in the number of people outside the workforce. Unemployment has surged, and informal employment has increased as many seek to survive outside the state-controlled sectors due to a lack of formal job opportunities.

Key economic sectors, such as agriculture and industry, have lost a significant number of skilled workers. Moreover, the number of individuals who have stopped seeking employment due to the lack of viable options in the state sector has risen. Formal employment in Cuba has decreased by more than 250,000 workers over the past five years, reflecting the severe crisis in the labor market.

Census Postponement Amid Economic Turmoil

The Cuban government planned to conduct a population census in 2025, but the deep economic crisis has forced its postponement. The lack of updated data complicates public policy planning to address the demographic decline and exacerbates uncertainty about the island's future. Many experts view the census delay as a strategy to conceal the true extent of the population crisis. Without accurate data, authorities lack effective tools to design strategies that could halt the population decline and promote birth rates.

Government Response and Challenges

Faced with this scenario, Cuban authorities have acknowledged the need for measures to encourage birth rates and curb emigration, but they have urged not to "dramatize" the situation. Some proposals include increasing benefits for families with children, improving access to housing, and creating economic incentives for young people. However, these initiatives clash with the reality of a struggling economy, limiting the state's ability to offer effective incentives.

Moreover, the lack of development prospects and political repression continue to drive thousands of Cubans to leave each year. Without real conditions for economic and social stability, it is unlikely that government measures will reverse the migration trend.

The demographic collapse in Cuba in 2024 reflects a structural crisis encompassing multiple dimensions: economic, social, and political. The loss of over 300,000 inhabitants in a single year and the lowest birth rate in decades are symptoms of a rapidly declining population. Without profound changes in the economy and political system, the exodus of Cubans and low birth rates will continue to shrink the island's population. If effective solutions are not implemented, Cuba's demographic future could become even bleaker in the coming decades.