The Electric Union (UNE) has issued a stark warning for Friday, predicting power outages could hit 1,435 MW at peak times. While this is slightly lower than yesterday's forecast, the deficit remains alarmingly high, casting a shadow over Valentine's Day for millions of Cubans on the island.
Official figures show that yesterday's maximum service disruption reached 1,668 MW at 7:50 p.m., coinciding with peak demand, and was below the 1,810 MW initially estimated by UNE. As of 7:00 a.m. today, the system's availability stood at 1,550 MW, while demand surged to 2,450 MW, resulting in a shortfall of 960 MW. This deficit is expected to climb to 1,200 MW by midday.
On a slightly positive note, the number of thermoelectric units out of service due to breakdowns or maintenance has decreased from ten to seven, offering a modest improvement in today's forecast. Currently, three units are down due to issues: unit 3 at the Santa Cruz CTE and units 1 and 2 at the Felton CTE. Four units are undergoing maintenance: unit 2 at Santa Cruz CTE, units 3 and 4 at Cienfuegos CTE, and unit 5 at Renté CTE.
Thermal restrictions have also sidelined 331 MW, while fuel shortages have impacted 493 MW, with 374 MW coming from 58 distributed generation plants and 119 MW from the Mariel fuel plant.
Peak Hour Forecast
During peak demand times, the return of 150 MW from distributed generation currently offline due to fuel shortages is anticipated, alongside the addition of 35 MW from two engines at the Melones barge. With these adjustments, system availability could reach 1,735 MW, but with expected demand at 3,100 MW, a shortfall of 1,365 MW is projected. Under these conditions, outages could reach 1,435 MW.
Power Outages in Havana
Havana's Electric Company announced that despite increased generation capacity this morning, planned outages will continue as scheduled. For February 14, power interruptions in the capital will occur as follows:
- Blocks #3 and #4: 10:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.
- Block #1: 3:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.
- Block #2: 6:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m.
Work and School Suspensions in Cuba
Although today's outage forecast is lower than earlier in the week, the Cuban government has announced the suspension of work and educational activities for Friday, February 14, and Saturday, February 15, due to the severe energy crisis facing the country.
"Considering the energy situation and to contribute to necessary energy savings to mitigate impacts on the population, it has been decided to suspend non-essential educational and work activities on February 14 and 15," the Ministry of Labor and Social Security (MTSS) stated. The official note clarified that essential services will continue, and affected workers will receive compensation equivalent to their job scale salary in line with the Labor Code.
An Unresolved Crisis
The Cuban government has repeatedly turned to temporary solutions to address its energy crisis, but these measures have failed to resolve the structural issues plaguing the country. In a quick but costly move, they leased up to eight floating power stations from a Turkish company. However, five of these left the country last year, further weakening the already struggling national electric system. The outdated thermoelectric plants, in operation for decades without adequate investment for maintenance, face persistent breakdowns compounded by fuel shortages.
Estimates suggest that modernizing the National Electric System would require an investment of $8 to $10 billion, a sum far beyond the Cuban government's reach.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Crisis
Why is Cuba experiencing severe power outages?
Cuba is facing severe power outages due to a combination of outdated infrastructure, lack of adequate maintenance, and fuel shortages, exacerbated by economic constraints.
How is the Cuban government responding to the energy crisis?
The Cuban government has implemented temporary measures such as leasing floating power stations and suspending non-essential activities to conserve energy, but these have not addressed the fundamental issues.
What are the implications of the power outages for Cuban citizens?
The power outages disrupt daily life, affecting everything from basic services to educational and work activities, and contribute to the overall hardships faced by the Cuban population.