The power crisis in Cuba remains dire, even though today's forecasted blackouts are slightly reduced to 1,436 MW. Yesterday, the power service was interrupted for a continuous 24-hour period, extending into the early hours of today. At 6:40 p.m., the maximum disruption reached 1,678 MW, surpassing the 1,575 MW predicted by the Cuban Electric Union (UNE).
As of 7:00 a.m. today, the situation remains critical. The generation capacity stands at a mere 1,270 MW against a demand of 2,260 MW, leaving 1,032 MW unavailable. Predictions indicate that conditions will worsen by midday, with an estimated impact of 1,450 MW.
Thermal Power Plant Shutdowns and Maintenance
Currently, seven thermal power units are offline due to breakdowns or maintenance, which is two fewer than yesterday. The CTE Guiteras and Unit 2 of the CTE Felton are out of service because of malfunctions. In maintenance are Unit 2 of the CTE Santa Cruz, Units 3 and 4 of the CTE Cienfuegos, Unit 1 of the CTE Felton, and Unit 5 of the CTE Renté. Additionally, there are thermal generation limitations totaling 342 MW, exacerbating the crisis further.
Fuel Shortages and Distributed Generation Issues
Fuel scarcity continues to be a significant factor in the system's instability. A total of 55 distributed generation plants are offline, accounting for a 305 MW loss. The Mariel fuel plant has 119 MW offline, bringing the total generation loss due to fuel issues to 424 MW.
Notably, only 100 MW from affected distributed generation engines are expected to return, along with 119 MW from the activation of seven engines at the Mariel fuel plant, 105 MW from nine engines at the Moa fuel plant, and 220 MW from the expected operation of Unit 1 of the CTE Felton, which is currently starting up.
Evening Peak and Regional Disparities
The outlook for the evening peak remains bleak. Even with the anticipated additions, capacity will only reach 1,814 MW, while maximum demand is projected at 3,180 MW, resulting in a 1,366 MW deficit. Under these conditions, the evening impact could rise to 1,436 MW, prolonging the energy crisis and uncertainty for residents.
The Havana Electric Company has informed customers that due to the generation capacity deficit in the National Electric System, service to capital clients associated with Blocks #1 and #2 will be disrupted between 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. Additionally, Block #3 will be affected from 3:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. No disruptions are planned for Havana between 6:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. However, a recent update indicates an emergency shutdown of Block #4 until 10 a.m. on Friday.
Meanwhile, provinces outside of Havana endure more severe blackouts, a frequent grievance among thousands who argue that the capital receives preferential treatment.
The shutdown of the Antonio Guiteras thermal power plant from the National Electric System shortly after 7 p.m. on Monday—just 24 hours after returning from a previous breakdown—sparked a crisis already looming due to ongoing malfunctions and fuel shortages. Journalist Lázaro Manuel Alonso, citing Bernardo Espinosa, reports that repairs on Guiteras are underway, with an expected return to the system by Saturday. For Felton, it is anticipated to be operational during Friday night's peak.
Understanding the Cuban Energy Crisis
Why are there frequent power outages in Cuba?
The frequent power outages in Cuba are primarily due to outdated infrastructure, maintenance issues, and a severe shortage of fuel, which affects the country's power generation capabilities.
What is the impact of fuel shortages on Cuba's energy supply?
Fuel shortages significantly impact Cuba's energy supply by limiting the operation of power plants, leading to reduced generation capacity and increased power outages.
How does the power shortage affect Havana compared to other regions?
Havana experiences fewer power outages compared to other regions of Cuba, leading to complaints of preferential treatment, as more severe blackouts occur in the provinces.