The Cuban government has shifted its economic rhetoric, announcing the launch of a "Government Program to Rectify Distortions and Revitalize the Economy by 2025." According to a report on the state-run site Cubadebate, the program was presented during the first Council of Ministers meeting of 2025. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz highlighted that proposals for objectives and projections, along with a work system and steps for crafting the program, were reviewed and approved in a prior December meeting.
Prime Minister Marrero, alongside a visibly weary Miguel Díaz-Canel, claimed that the move transitions from mere government projections to a comprehensive plan encompassing objectives, projections, actions, indicators, goals, and timelines. Despite this, economist Pedro Monreal, in a critical analysis on his account on X, pointed out the absence of a detailed plan or concrete measures. What were once "projections" have simply been rebranded as a "government program" without any real structural changes.
Monreal's analysis highlights the lack of depth in the announcement, noting that the official statement only includes vague aspirations and references to education and artificial intelligence, without specific data, quantified goals, or allocated resources. The absence of self-critical analysis and any mention of the failed "Tarea Ordenamiento"—which not only failed to resolve economic distortions but also created new issues like uncontrolled dollarization, inflation, and widespread impoverishment—reveals the propagandistic nature of this initiative.
The ambitious promises of the "Tarea Ordenamiento" to deliver "significant benefits for all" have been forgotten. There is no indication that the government intends to assess its mistakes or effectively address them, nor have the public's demands for "results" been heeded. Instead, the regime maintains an empty narrative, devoid of verifiable information on how they plan to correct economic distortions or genuinely boost the economy by 2025.
The Hollow Nature of the "Government Program"
Monreal identified three crucial elements missing from the supposed economic program: First, macroeconomic stabilization. Although the regime claims a rebound is expected in 2025, the CEPAL anticipates a scenario of stagflation—economic stagnation combined with high inflation. Second, a transformation of the economic model. Temporary measures won't suffice to revitalize the economy; structural changes are necessary, something the government fails to address. Third, the well-being of Cuban households. Despite widespread poverty and growing inequality, the government opts for statistical silence, withholding data on real incomes and living standards. Indirect indicators, like the decline in workers' remuneration relative to GDP, mirror the harshest neoliberal adjustments.
In essence, what the regime labels a "program" is simply a relabeling of what was already known: a crisis-ridden economy lacking fundamental reforms, with a government determined to sidestep genuine structural transformations. Rather than acknowledging policy failures and proposing effective solutions, the government clings to propaganda, crafting narratives to project control and planning while the nation continues its downward spiral.
The Evolution of Economic "Projections" in 2024
To grasp the regime's strategic rhetoric, it's essential to examine the evolution of "projections" throughout 2024. In January, Díaz-Canel presented these projections as the path to achieving prosperity for the "heroic people." Despite announcements of "significant measures" and "necessary adjustments," the economic policy saw no substantial changes, persisting in centralizing the socialist state enterprise while hindering the emergence of private "new economic actors."
The year began with promises to address economic distortions through banking reforms and exchange rate control. However, by April, the government conceded the banking reforms failed to achieve desired effects on inflation and monetary stabilization. Concurrently, rampant price increases and the energy crisis fueled more uncertainty, with even regime sympathizers rejecting the measures.
Among 2024's most controversial decisions was the dramatic fuel price hike announced in January, with increases up to 500% in some cases, exacerbating the economic crisis by inflating transportation and essential goods costs. Throughout the latter half of the year, official rhetoric focused on the supposed "effective implementation" of announced measures, without providing concrete evidence of proclaimed "progress."
In September and October, high-ranking officials stressed the need for greater "preparation and demand" from leaders, blaming middle-level managers without acknowledging structural policy failures. "We're going to tackle complacency!" declared Marrero Cruz in January 2024, outlining the "methodology" as part of the Projections now dubbed the "Government Program to Rectify Distortions and Revitalize the Economy."
The Partial Dollarization: A Misleading Novelty
Within the alleged "Government Program," the only measure potentially considered new is the partial dollarization of the economy, although this trend was already emerging. At the end of 2024, the regime approved regulations allowing dollar usage in wholesale, retail, and certain foreign trade sectors.
The government justifies this move as an attempt to attract more foreign currency and stabilize the supply of essential goods. In practice, however, it has deepened social inequality, as only those with access to dollars can benefit. Moreover, this decision contradicts Díaz-Canel's 2020 statements denying any attempt to dollarize the economy.
The impact of this partial dollarization has been increased costs for goods and services in Cuban pesos, an expansion of the informal currency market, and the reinforcement of a dual economy benefiting only a portion of the population. Instead of resolving distortions, this policy exacerbates them, reinforcing an exclusionary model and widening the gap between those with dollar access and those reliant on state salaries.
Key Questions about Cuba's New Economic Program
What is the main goal of Cuba's newly announced economic program?
The main goal of Cuba's new economic program is to rectify economic distortions and revitalize the economy by 2025. However, critics argue that it lacks specific plans and measures.
Why is the partial dollarization of the economy considered controversial?
Partial dollarization is controversial because it increases social inequality, benefiting only those with access to dollars and contradicting past government statements against dollarization.
How did the "Tarea Ordenamiento" impact the Cuban economy?
The "Tarea Ordenamiento" failed to resolve economic distortions and instead led to issues like uncontrolled dollarization, inflation, and widespread impoverishment, highlighting its ineffectiveness.