Cuba Faces Another Week of Severe Blackouts Amid 1,400 MW Energy Shortfall

Cuba continues to grapple with severe power outages as the week begins with a predicted energy shortfall of 1,400 MW. As January comes to a close, the island is dealing with a malfunctioning thermoelectric plant, three others undergoing maintenance, and additional plants out of service due to high temperatures and fuel shortages.

The National Electric System (SEN) is facing yet another challenging day in ensuring energy supply after a Sunday plagued by extended blackouts and network overloads in the central-eastern regions of the country. From 6:51 a.m. to 10:35 p.m. on Sunday, the electric service was disrupted, peaking at a deficit of 1,227 MW at 6:30 p.m., primarily affecting residents in central and eastern provinces.

Ongoing Energy Deficits

Power cuts have persisted into Monday, starting at 6:05 a.m., due to high energy transfers to the central-eastern region. As of 7:00 a.m., the Electric Union (UNE) reported an energy availability of 1,790 MW against a demand of 2,000 MW, leaving 278 MW affected. This exacerbates the daily struggles of thousands of Cuban families.

For Monday's peak hours, an availability of 1,909 MW is expected, with a maximum demand of 3,250 MW, predicting a shortfall of 1,411 MW. According to the Electric Union, "42 distributed generation plants with 234 MW, 126 MW at the Moa fuel plant, and 119 MW at the Mariel fuel plant are out of service due to fuel shortages, totaling 479 MW affected."

Infrastructure Struggles and Fuel Shortages

The Unit 2 of the Felton Thermoelectric Plant, a major energy source for the country, is out of service due to a malfunction, reducing available generation capacity and straining already overburdened plants. Additionally, units in Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, and Renté are undergoing maintenance, further limiting the system's ability to meet energy demand.

High temperatures and deteriorating infrastructure have forced an additional 400 MW out of service, highlighting the structural deficiencies of the national electric system. Compounding this, fuel shortages persist, with plants dependent on this resource partially paralyzed, accounting for 479 MW out of service. This issue stems from the regime's credit limitations and logistical failures, hindering the procurement of oil and gas, resulting in more frequent and prolonged blackouts.

Potential Long-term Solutions

The ruling Communist Party insists that resolving the energy crisis requires time and international cooperation. Meanwhile, citizens endure the consequences of a collapsed system with limited prospects for short-term improvement. In fact, the think tank Cuba Siglo XXI warns that this economic and electrical system deterioration, dubbed the "Haitianization" of the country, could lead to a regime change by 2025.

Long-term solutions to the power outages include modernizing existing plants, investing in renewable energy sources like solar and wind, and seeking strategic alliances to ensure a more stable fuel supply. However, these initiatives require funding and political will, which are currently lacking.

As of January 27, 2025, the situation of the SEN highlights the dire state of daily life in Cuba. Prolonged blackouts and generation limitations continue to impact citizens' daily lives, while structural solutions remain elusive. The regime's ability to manage this crisis is crucial not only for restoring electric service but also for regaining public trust amid an increasingly strained economic and social landscape.