The U.S.-based think tank Cuba XXI envisions a potential regime change in Cuba for the year 2025. This prediction is detailed in their report, "Cuba 2025: Possibilities and Probabilities," released this Wednesday. The Florida organization assesses the island's governance and concludes that Cuba's totalitarian system has collapsed.
According to the report, a regime change involves overhauling the institutions, laws, regulations, and ideologies managed by the government. However, it emphasizes that altering the government itself is essential since it has clearly opposed any regime change and seeks to maintain the status quo. Hence, the current government is seen as part of the problem rather than the solution, as highlighted in a press release by the think tank.
Key Catalysts for Change
The think tank identifies the death of Raúl Castro as a pivotal factor that could trigger a power struggle within Cuba's leadership. Coupled with widespread public discontent and international pressure, this could lead to a transition toward a new political model.
International Indicators of Governance
Experts Emilio Morales and Juan Antonio Blanco analyzed six international governance indicators to reach their conclusions: rule of law, socio-economic security, state efficiency, corruption, international relations, and political stability. Their analysis suggests that the "situation is critical," and they foresee that many previously deemed impossible changes are now possible and even probable.
The collapse of the governance regime, growing social unrest, internal tensions within the power bloc, and strategic clarity from Washington, particularly under the Trump Administration, could signal a turning point for Cuba. This coincides with the severe crisis facing Maduro's regime in Venezuela. The mutual reliance of both regimes has helped them survive past challenges, but this time it could be their shared Achilles' heel leading to their downfall, Cuba XXI notes.
Current Crisis Factors
The report highlights three critical factors in Cuba's governance crisis: economic collapse, social unrest, and political instability. Economically, Cuba is in a "precarious financial state" due to declines in revenue from remittances, tourism, and medical services exports. Socially, the massive wave of emigration reflects collective dissatisfaction, rooted in a 90% increase in poverty. Politically, the July 11, 2021, protests and increased state repression have fueled citizen resistance.
Cuba XXI argues that to stabilize the nation, a shift away from the totalitarian regime is necessary, along with preventing further mass migrations and ensuring Cuba ceases to be a source of international subversion. However, they acknowledge that the direction of any change is uncertain and not guaranteed. They simply assert that "change is possible."
Potential Outcomes and Global Influence
If change occurs, it could lead to a civic-military movement driven by pro-democracy forces, establishing a transition to democracy and rule of law. Alternatively, it might involve an internally controlled change within the power bloc, potentially resulting in a new autocratic regime with limited economic openness.
In this context, the study suggests that the Trump Administration and the global community could play crucial roles by supporting Cuba's democratization and deterring the regime from using violence, possibly even "neutralizing its repressive apparatus through targeted military actions."
The authors stress that historical events are shaped not by analysts' predictions but by what the actors involved—right or wrong—believe is possible. Currently, numerous factors contribute to making such a change feasible.
Understanding Cuba's Potential Political Shift
What factors could lead to a regime change in Cuba by 2025?
The report identifies Raúl Castro's death, internal power struggles, public discontent, and international pressure as key factors that could facilitate a political transition in Cuba.
How has Cuba's economic situation contributed to its governance crisis?
Cuba's economic crisis is marked by a precarious financial state due to reduced income from remittances, tourism, and medical services exports, contributing to the overall governance instability.