Esteemed Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera issued a warning on Tuesday about a significant possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the western Caribbean this week. He urged residents in western Cuba to remain vigilant as the system could potentially approach the area.
In a YouTube update, Rubiera explained that although November is traditionally a quieter month during hurricane season, current atmospheric conditions are conducive to the development of a cyclonic system. Analysis and meteorological models indicate that an active tropical wave south of Jamaica and in the western Caribbean is showing signs of organization, which could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours.
Rubiera noted that the GFS, European, and German models—among the most accurate in weather forecasting—are in agreement that this system may gain strength as it moves westward, potentially impacting the northeastern areas of Nicaragua or the Gulf of Honduras.
Favorable Conditions for Cyclone Development
The potential cyclone formation is supported by several factors, including high sea surface temperatures in the western Caribbean, abundant moisture, and low wind shear in the upper atmosphere, all of which are ideal for the intensification of such systems.
As the weather phenomenon progresses, it may stall for two or three days, causing prolonged effects in the region before resuming its northwestward path, which could bring it closer to the Yucatán Peninsula and possibly to western Cuba.
Precautionary Measures and Updates
Residents in Central America, the Yucatán Peninsula, and western Cuba are advised to stay updated with meteorological reports. Local authorities and emergency services are on high alert, ready to respond to potential impacts. Daily updates on the cyclone's behavior are expected.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) also reported an increased likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the Caribbean Sea before the week's end. According to the latest bulletin, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean are associated with a broad area of low pressure. There is a 60% chance that this low-pressure area will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two to three days as it slowly moves westward toward the western Caribbean. Over a seven-day period, the probability rises to 90%, up from 80% less than 24 hours ago.