The United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced an increased likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. According to the latest advisory released on Tuesday, disorganized showers and thunderstorms have been observed over the central Caribbean, linked to a broad low-pressure area.
The chances of this low-pressure zone developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two to three days stand at 60%, as the system gradually shifts westward towards the western Caribbean. Looking further ahead, the probability rises to 90% over the next seven days—a jump from 80% just a day ago.
Monitoring Required for Western Caribbean Interests
The NHC forecasts that the system will begin moving slowly northwestward early next week. They advise that those with interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean should closely track the system's progress. Experts predict that it will follow a path towards the western region of Cuba, similar to that of Hurricane Rafael.
Renowned Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera has issued a warning regarding this tropical wave, urging citizens to stay informed about its development. Rubiera highlighted that conditions in the western Caribbean are favorable for cyclonic development, due to factors like warm waters and atmospheric moisture.
If a new tropical storm forms, it would be the 18th of the current hurricane season and would be named Sara.