Donald Trump, alongside the Republican Party, may face a legislative session where they hold near-total control over the U.S. Congress, following preliminary results from the recent elections. If this legislative dominance materializes, Trump would have an unparalleled chance to advance his agenda with minimal resistance from the Democrats.
Currently, the Republicans have secured 52 of the 100 Senate seats, surpassing the simple majority needed to control the upper chamber. This outcome is largely due to victories in pivotal states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, where Republicans managed to capture seats previously held by Democrats.
The Path Ahead in the Senate
With a Senate majority, Trump and his administration find themselves in a favorable position to push forward reforms and confirm critical appointments in both the cabinet and the judiciary, cementing a conservative influence within federal institutions.
House of Representatives: A Close Call
In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is on the brink of solidifying its majority, having secured 214 seats out of the 218 needed for control. With several seats yet to be decided in states like California and Arizona, Republicans are just four seats shy of a majority. The ongoing disputes in these key states keep the ultimate control of this chamber in suspense, with both parties striving to bolster their representation.
Legislative Agenda Implications
Should the Republicans manage to secure both chambers, Trump would have a broad margin to advance his legislative program, which emphasizes issues such as immigration, border security, tax cuts, and an economic policy geared towards bolstering the private sector. Political analysts agree that this new power balance could mark a significant shift in U.S. politics, granting Republicans unprecedented capacity for profound changes.
Impact on U.S.-Cuba Relations
A Trump-led Congress with control over both chambers could significantly alter the U.S.-Cuba relationship. Given his previous policies and Republican priorities, expected changes and increased restrictions might occur in key areas like migration, diplomatic relations, the embargo, and the Cuban Adjustment Act.
During his previous term, Trump imposed immigration restrictions, especially targeting Cuban migration, with a focus on limiting access to residency programs and immigration benefits. With Republican control, a Trump administration might aim to introduce stricter policies for Cuban migrants seeking to benefit from the Cuban Adjustment Act, which allows Cubans to obtain permanent residency after a year in the U.S.
In his earlier term, Trump eliminated the "Parole" program for Cuban professionals and suspended visa processing in Havana, forcing Cubans to travel to third countries for their paperwork. With congressional control, Trump is likely to maintain or expand these restrictions, further limiting migration flows, which would have a pronounced impact given the recent increase in Cuban migration due to the island's challenging economic and social conditions.
Diplomatic Relations and Embassies
Previously, Trump reversed many of the engagement policies initiated by Barack Obama, restricting diplomatic interactions and limiting staff at the Havana embassy. In 2017, the State Department drastically reduced diplomatic staff in Cuba, citing health issues among its personnel (the so-called "Havana Syndrome").
With an aligned Congress, Trump is likely not only to maintain these limitations but also to enhance oversight and reduce bilateral cooperation in areas such as cultural or academic exchanges. Tightened visa policies and minimal diplomatic staff would further complicate consular procedures and strain diplomatic relations overall. Additionally, a Republican Congress might support measures to hinder the establishment of new cooperative efforts between the two governments.
Embargo and Economic Sanctions
During his first term, Trump imposed new restrictions under the embargo, limiting American travel to Cuba, restricting remittances, and prohibiting transactions with Cuban state-linked companies. With a Republican-majority Congress, Trump is likely to focus on tightening these sanctions, as control of both chambers would facilitate the implementation of new restrictions under the Helms-Burton Act, which was fully activated during his tenure.
This tightening could include stricter limitations for international companies wishing to invest in Cuba, impacting the Cuban economy by restricting access to foreign investment. By controlling Congress, a Trump administration could push legislative measures to prevent any easing of the embargo, blocking attempts at economic normalization or the restoration of trade relations.
General Outlook: Increased Isolation
Overall, a Trump administration with power in both chambers would likely pursue an isolationist approach towards Cuba, justifying these policies as pressure to encourage political change on the island. Through tougher sanctions and reduced diplomatic interaction, the administration might seek to weaken the Cuban government's economic support and further isolate it in the international context.
Based on past actions, Trump and an aligned Congress would be less inclined to implement engagement policies, potentially leading to a freeze in bilateral relations, further limiting channels of dialogue and collaboration between the two countries.
The Significance of Congressional Control in U.S. Foreign Policy
Controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives is essential for a U.S. president's foreign policy, as it provides the necessary backing to implement and sustain international strategies more effectively.
Treaties and Key Appointments
The Senate, in particular, holds the constitutional power to ratify international treaties and approve key foreign policy appointments, such as ambassadors and senior State Department officials. When the president and his party control the Senate, the confirmation process for these officials and treaty ratifications becomes much smoother. This is crucial as it allows the president to execute his foreign policy vision with a trusted team and without the delays or rejections that can arise in a Senate controlled by the opposition.
Sanctions and Embargoes
Both chambers have the power to legislate on sanctions and embargoes, key tools in U.S. foreign policy. For instance, laws like the Helms-Burton Act regarding Cuba or sanctions on countries like Iran or Venezuela require legislative support. With an aligned Congress, the president can impose or lift sanctions more swiftly and with less opposition. Congressional control also facilitates the funding of sanction policies that demand resources and personnel from various government agencies.
Budget Control
Congress holds the "power of the purse," meaning it controls the federal budget, which includes funding for diplomatic missions, foreign aid, defense programs, and overseas military operations. Without the support of both chambers, the president might face budget cuts or blockages that limit his ability to act in foreign policy. With control of both chambers, the president can ensure adequate funding to implement his foreign strategy, whether through economic cooperation and aid or support for military missions and security programs.
Legislation Supporting Foreign Policy
A Congress controlled by the president's party can enact laws that bolster his foreign policy, including regulations on immigration, trade, cybersecurity, and human rights. This also includes the possibility of amending restrictive laws or, conversely, toughening legislation on specific issues like trade embargoes or visa restrictions. Legislation passed in this context becomes a legal tool that allows the president to sustain his policies over time, even in the face of potential judicial challenges.
Political Backing and International Unity
Having a politically aligned Congress provides the president with an image of unity and strength on the international stage, which can enhance his position in negotiations and dialogues with other nations. The international community observes the political cohesion of the United States, and when the president has legislative backing, he has greater influence and persuasive power with other governments, as he presents a consolidated stance in his policies. Control of both chambers enables the president to act more coherently and decisively on the international stage, minimizing internal barriers that might hamper his decisions and maximizing his ability to project power and influence globally.