The tropical storm known as Rafael is gaining strength as it moves through the western Caribbean Sea, nearing Jamaica's southern coast. Meteorologists are warning that this weather system could escalate to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday.
As of 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday, Rafael's center was located approximately 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and 200 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm is projected to become a hurricane within hours, with its path leading directly toward western Cuba.
Currently, Rafael is sustaining maximum winds of 60 mph and is moving northwest at 12 mph. This course is expected to bring the storm close to Jamaica today, before it reaches the Cayman Islands tonight.
Current Warnings
In its latest advisory, the NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys. The following warnings are in effect:
Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands and Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud.
Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica, Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, and Ciego de Ávila, as well as the Florida Keys from Key West to the west of Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas.
Tropical Storm Watch: Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas.
Authorities urge residents in these regions to quickly prepare for severe weather conditions.
Expected Impacts
Winds: Hurricane conditions are anticipated in the Cayman Islands tonight and in western Cuba, including Isla de la Juventud, by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions will persist in Jamaica until midday and are expected to reach the Florida Keys on Wednesday night.
Rainfall: Rafael is expected to deliver heavy rainfall to the western Caribbean through Thursday, with accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and isolated totals reaching up to 10 inches in the mountainous regions of Jamaica and Cuba, leading to a heightened risk of flooding and landslides. Rainfall in the Florida Keys is forecasted to be between 1 and 3 inches.
Storm Surge: Southern Cuba could experience a storm surge elevating sea levels by 6 to 9 feet in hurricane warning areas, while the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas might see rises of up to 3 feet.
Tornadoes and Surf: There is a possibility of isolated tornadoes on Wednesday in the Florida Keys and the southwest of the Florida peninsula. Rafael's winds will also generate hazardous surf across much of the western Caribbean, posing a significant threat to swimmers due to strong rip currents.