Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is currently seeking the Republican nomination, has garnered an impressive 68% backing from likely Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade. This figure marks a "historic high," according to a survey conducted by Florida International University (FIU). The poll, which included 1,001 Cuban-Americans who are potential voters, was conducted via phone between September 25 and October 9.
One notable finding is that 23% of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade plan to vote for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election on November 5, while 5% remain undecided. The level of support for Trump among this demographic is the highest recorded by FIU, which has been tracking this community since 1991, throughout his 2017-2021 term.
Back in 2016, Trump's approval rating was at 35%, which climbed to 59% in 2020, indicating what academic Guillermo Grenier describes as "Trump's train continuing to pick up passengers on Calle Ocho." The poll also highlights that Republicans remain the majority among registered Cuban-American voters at 55%, but those born outside of Cuba show a more divided affiliation: 38% identify as Republicans, 33% as Democrats, and 26% as independents.
The survey predicts Republican Senator Rick Scott will receive 50% support compared to 19% for his Democratic rival, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, in the Florida Senate race. Cuban-Americans with Republican or Democratic leanings have different perspectives on key national issues. Republican supporters prioritize the economy, followed by immigration, healthcare access, and international relations with China, Russia, and Cuba. They also focus on gun rights and reproductive healthcare access.
Democratic followers, on the other hand, emphasize healthcare as a primary concern, followed by safe abortion services, the economy, and access to assault weapons. Racial relations, immigration, and relations with Russia, Cuba, and China are also significant topics for them.
The U.S. embargo on Cuba was another subject covered by the poll, showing that 55% of Cuban-Americans in South Florida support its continuation. However, there is also relatively high support for certain engagement policies, such as the sale of food (61% support) and medicine (69%) to the island. Among Cuban-Americans not born in Cuba, 43% support the continuation of the embargo.
A recent survey by Mason-Dixon, released earlier this October, aligns with these findings, indicating a trend of support for the former U.S. President among Cubans. Commissioned by Telemundo 51, this study revealed that 61% of Cuban-Americans would vote for Trump in the next election, while only 28% would back Kamala Harris, with 4% undecided.
These findings starkly contrast with results from late August, when a poll by Inquire, commissioned by Republican Commissioner Kevin Cabrera, showed a tie between the Democratic candidate and the Republican in Miami-Dade. At that time, both candidates had 47% voter intention in Florida's most populous county, traditionally a Democratic stronghold. This survey was conducted with 500 participants between August 22 and 25, coinciding with the end of the Democratic Convention in Chicago and had a margin of error of 4.5%.
In the 2020 elections, Trump won the state of Florida with 51.2% of the vote, compared to Joe Biden's 47.9%. However, in Miami-Dade, Trump received the majority of votes, securing 54% of the ballots.