The energy crisis in Cuba is intensifying, as the nation experienced a record-breaking day on Tuesday with a power deficit of 1,641 MW. Currently, seven thermoelectric units are offline due to breakdowns or maintenance. While there is slight improvement expected today, the forecast predicts outages nearing 1,500 MW during peak hours.
“At this time, electric service disruptions are affecting nearly all provinces, excluding protected circuits. Even Matanzas has had to plan cuts in essential circuits,” admitted Lázaro Manuel Alonso, a state journalist, in a Facebook post around 6:00 p.m.
On the previous day, the service was disrupted for 24 hours due to a generation capacity shortfall, failing to restore service by this morning. The highest impact was recorded at 1,641 MW at 7:10 p.m., not coinciding with the peak demand period.
Unexpected Challenges in Power Generation
In their October 16 report, the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) of Cuba acknowledged that the outages exceeded the planned 1,308 MW. The disruptions were attributed to the unforeseen shutdown of Unit 1 at the CTE Santa Cruz, delayed recovery of engines at the Melones floating power plant due to fuel shortages, and higher than expected demand.
As of 7:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the National Electroenergetic System (SEN) had an availability of 1,780 MW against a demand of 2,660 MW, resulting in a shortfall of 908 MW. This situation is expected to lead to outages of around 1,100 MW by midday, a substantial figure for daytime hours.
Units Affected and Recovery Expectations
Currently, several units are out of commission: Unit 1 of CTE Santa Cruz, Unit 5 of CTE Nuevitas, Unit 2 of CTE Felton, and Unit 3 of CTE Renté are malfunctioning. Meanwhile, maintenance is ongoing for Unit 2 of CTE Santa Cruz, Unit 4 of CTE Cienfuegos, and Unit 5 of CTE Renté. Thermal generation limitations account for 407 MW.
Additionally, 37 distributed generation plants, the Mariel floating power plant, the CDE Mariel, and the Santiago de Cuba floating power plant are offline due to fuel issues, totaling 464 MW—222 MW in distributed groups, 158 MW in the floating plants, and 84 MW in the CDE Mariel.
Hopeful Projections Amidst Widespread Outages
Amid this bleak scenario, projections for today's peak hours include the reactivation of Unit 1 of CTE Santa Cruz with 80 MW, Unit 5 of CTE Nuevitas with 75 MW, and Unit 3 of CTE Renté with 70 MW. With these units expected to come back online, the UNE forecasts a peak availability of 2,005 MW against a maximum demand of 3,380 MW, leading to a deficit of 1,375 MW. If conditions persist, an estimated impact of 1,445 MW is anticipated during the evening peak, when demand is highest.