Amid what is projected to be the most active hurricane season in four decades, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced on Monday that it is keeping a close watch on two low-pressure systems with significant development potential in both the Atlantic and the Caribbean. In a recent post on X, the agency highlighted its focus on a low-pressure area, designated as AL94, situated in the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with a 30% chance of evolving into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Over the next seven days, the likelihood of development rises to 60% as the system progresses west-northwestward, drawing nearer to the Leeward Islands.
Potential Caribbean Development
Additionally, a broad area of low pressure is anticipated to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by mid to late this week. While the short-term development prospects are low, there remains a 30% chance of formation over the next seven days. Regardless of its development, this system could bring heavy rainfall to parts of Central America.
These warnings come less than a week after Hurricane Milton devastated much of Florida, and with a month and a half remaining until the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season. The 2024 hurricane season has been notably active, with 13 named storms recorded thus far. Current conditions in the Atlantic basin have resulted in the season being classified as "above normal."
Understanding the Active Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) bases this classification on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which assesses the frequency, intensity, and duration of storms. To date, the season has generated 127 ACE units, meeting NOAA's criteria for an above-average season. The hurricane season officially spans from June 1 to November 30, leaving more than seven weeks for potential additional developments.
The upcoming tropical storms will be named Nadine and Oscar.