The National Hurricane Center (NHC) based in Miami, Florida, has issued a warning this Tuesday about two potential tropical depressions forming in the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is Tropical Storm Kirk, which is currently positioned in the central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Kirk, situated in the central tropical Atlantic, has an 80% chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance over the next seven days. Rain and thunderstorms accompanying Kirk are showing increased organization, linked to a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental factors suggest further strengthening of Kirk, likely turning it into a tropical depression in the coming days as it slowly moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
As of Monday, Tropical Storm Kirk was near latitude 13.5 North and longitude 34.8 West, moving westward at approximately 12 mph (19 km/h). Forecasts indicated that this motion would continue through Tuesday, with a gradual turn towards the northwest expected by Wednesday.
Lower Probability System
The second potential tropical depression consists of currently disorganized rain and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with a trough of low pressure. While environmental conditions might support some gradual development, this system could become a tropical depression by the end of the week or over the weekend as it generally moves northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center advises monitoring along the U.S. Gulf Coast for updates on this system, which has a 10% chance of forming into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next seven days.
According to reports from CiberCuba, the NHC announced on Monday morning that it is monitoring a large area of low pressure in the western Caribbean, the same region where Hurricane Helene recently formed. Helene impacted Cuba, Mexico, and most significantly, Florida last week.
September Weather Overview
In the month of September, meteorological activity was near average, with six named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Overall, the season's activity aligns closely with the average of the last nearly 30 years (1991-2020).