The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) issued an early warning on Monday regarding the likelihood of heavy rains in the western part of the country. This is due to a potential tropical cyclone forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea, where a broad low-pressure area has developed, accompanied by extensive clouds, showers, rain, and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized over the past 12 hours.
Heavy Rainfall Expected in Pinar del Río
The Forecast Center in Pinar del Río has predicted that from Tuesday to Thursday, rainfall accumulations could range from 150 to 200 mm across most of the province, with amounts potentially exceeding 300 mm in the far western areas. There is also a high probability of flooding in low-lying regions.
Potential for Tropical Depression or Storm
INSMET indicated that in the coming days, conditions will be favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or storm as the low-pressure area moves northwest through the Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of the system's development and path, heavy rains are expected in western and central Cuba, becoming intense in some locations starting Tuesday evening, May 24.
Coastal Flooding and Strong Winds Possible
Depending on the system's trajectory, wind strength could increase, leading to coastal flooding in southern parts of western Cuba. While intense rainfall is currently the most significant threat, strong winds resembling those of a tropical storm (over 62 km/h) could occur as the system moves north through the Yucatán Channel or near the tip of Pinar del Río, potentially evolving into a tropical depression or storm.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified this system as the potential ninth tropical cyclone of the season in the Caribbean Sea, possibly reaching hurricane status by Wednesday morning. The NHC has issued tropical storm warnings and watches for parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.
As of 11:00 am on Monday, the system was located 130 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman and 350 miles south-southeast of the westernmost tip of Cuba. It was moving north at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. The disturbance is expected to strengthen and approach hurricane strength by Tuesday night as it enters the Caribbean Sea.