With seven thermal power units out of commission, Cuba's Electric Union (UNE) forecasts power outages reaching up to 880 MW during peak hours this Sunday. According to the UNE, this indicates a "slight improvement," as official journalist José Miguel Solís described Saturday's forecast, which estimated around 800 MW during peak demand times.
However, actual outcomes depend on the real-time behavior of the Electric Power System (SEN). On the previous day, service disruptions began at 6:01 a.m. due to a generation capacity shortfall and persisted until 7:00 a.m. Sunday, causing blackouts throughout the day. The most significant outage on Saturday occurred at 8:40 p.m., with a peak impact of 1,043 MW.
Current Power Supply and Demand
As of 7:00 a.m. Sunday, the SEN had an available capacity of 2,070 MW, while the demand was 2,406 MW, resulting in a generation capacity deficit of 411 MW. The daily report published on Facebook predicted a 650 MW shortfall during mid-day.
The units currently out of the SEN due to breakdowns include: unit 8 of the CTE Mariel, units 5 and 6 of the CTE Nuevitas, unit 2 of the CTE Felton, and units 5 and 6 of the CTE Renté. Additionally, unit 2 of the CTE Santa Cruz is offline for maintenance.
Challenges in Thermal Generation
Thermal generation is limited, with a 372 MW shortfall. Additionally, 44 distributed generation plants lack fuel, representing a total impact of 278 MW. UNE officials plan to bring online unit 5 of the CTE Diez de Octubre with 70 MW, unit 8 of the CTE Mariel with 70 MW, and recover 80 MW from distributed generation during peak hours.
With these efforts, UNE estimates a peak hour availability of 2,290 MW against a maximum demand of 3,100 MW, leading to an expected deficit of 810 MW. Consequently, a 880 MW impact is anticipated if conditions remain as projected.
Public Frustration and Government Response
Last Thursday, amid severe blackouts, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz remarked that people were not losing morale, despite widespread frustration expressed on social media.
Many Cubans have voiced their discontent in UNE’s daily reports, highlighting the dire situation:
"Brothers, look, analyze, and reach the sad conclusion that there is no hope for Cubans, especially the common people. When one problem is fixed, another arises. The sheer arrogance, the manipulation of the people mark the day. Now there's oil, but more than 50 percent of the thermoelectric plants are broken. It's a total disaster in all spheres of society; we are going from bad to worse without brakes."
"Take your stories elsewhere; I'm tired of the same issue every day without seeing improvements."
"A unit comes online, and three go offline. You neither respect yourselves nor the people. This report is pointless. The UNE is so incompetent that it exceeds its planned deficits daily. Resign; this is too much for you."