The peak period of the current hurricane season began on August 20 and will last for approximately six weeks. Puerto Rican meteorologist Rubén García explained on Facebook that this stage is considered the pinnacle of the current season.
"According to historical data, on average, 85% of a hurricane season's activity occurs after this date," highlighted the expert. Although the most active period, which spans six weeks, has just started, the meteorologist emphasized that the Atlantic is expected to remain calm for the next seven to ten days.
"Models indicate that cyclonic activity could significantly increase from the last week of August," he mentioned.
In another post, García explained that the University of Colorado released its forecast for cyclonic activity over the next two weeks, predicting normal activity levels. However, they stress that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be extremely active.
Although no tropical cyclones are expected to develop in the next seven days, conditions are anticipated to become more favorable towards the end of August as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) positions itself over the Indian Ocean, which will enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Lastly, he emphasized the forecast of 23 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, six of which could be major hurricanes.
Meanwhile, Dr. Miriam Teresita Llanes Monteagudo, head of the Forecast Center at the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba, stated that the 2024 hurricane season will be very active in the North Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, as reported by the state-run Cubadebate.
She pointed out that for the remainder of the season, 15 tropical storms are expected to form in the entire geographic area, nine of which could reach hurricane status. She explained to the news portal that, out of the total number of tropical storms, 12 should develop in the Atlantic oceanic zone and three in the Caribbean Sea, noting that there are very high probabilities (85%) of at least one hurricane originating and intensifying in the Caribbean and a 70% chance of an Atlantic-origin hurricane entering the Caribbean.
According to Dr. Llanes, the probability of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80%, and if considering at least one tropical storm, the probability rises to 90%.
In June, meteorologists from the Colorado State University forecasted that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be "extremely active," with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
These figures far exceed the averages of the last 30 years, which are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes in the Atlantic.
In May, the Cuban institution predicted the formation of 20 tropical cyclones in the entire North Atlantic basin, of which 11 could reach hurricane status.
Key Insights into the 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast
To provide more clarity on the upcoming hurricane season and its potential impacts, here are some frequently asked questions and answers based on expert forecasts.
When does the most active period of the hurricane season start?
The most active period of the hurricane season begins on August 20 and lasts for approximately six weeks.
What is the expected level of activity for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be extremely active, with forecasts predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
What are the probabilities of hurricanes affecting Cuba?
The probability of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80%, and the probability of being impacted by at least one tropical storm is 90%.