Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former Republican President Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, according to a new poll released recently by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert.
Less than three weeks after assuming the role of the de facto Democratic presidential candidate, Harris demonstrates a significant lead over Trump. The poll indicates that she has the backing of 54% of likely voters in the county, surpassing her rival in the upcoming presidential election, who garners 40% support.
The survey, conducted in early August by MDW Communications, a well-known Democratic consulting firm based in Plantation, Florida, reflects a notable shift in the local political landscape following Joe Biden's exit from the presidential race, as reported by the Miami Herald.
With a margin of error of 4.6%, the poll interviewed 1,071 potential voters in the general elections within Miami-Dade, highlighting a growing enthusiasm among Democrats in a state that has been a Republican stronghold in recent years.
Political Shifts and Demographic Support
This new electoral scenario also underscores the diversity of the electorate in Miami-Dade. According to the cited source, Harris has secured significant support among several key groups. For instance, 55% of women and 52% of men interviewed expressed their intention to vote for the Vice President.
Additionally, among non-Cuban Hispanic voters, Harris enjoys 58% support, compared to 38% who back Trump. However, Trump retains a notable lead among Cuban Americans, with 61% support versus 33% for Harris.
Despite this advantage in Miami-Dade, the overall landscape in Florida remains challenging for Democrats. Although the poll shows positive signs for Harris, such as the consolidation of voters seeking progress rather than regression, recent history suggests that a win in Miami-Dade does not necessarily translate to a statewide victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by a wide margin but failed to secure a win in Florida.
The survey also offers optimistic perspectives for other Democratic candidates in local races within Miami-Dade. James Reyes, the Democratic candidate for county sheriff, leads by 10 percentage points over Rosie Cordero-Stutz, the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate. Furthermore, Democrats maintain leads in the races for clerk of courts, comptroller, tax collector, and county elections supervisor.
Another notable finding of the poll is the widespread support for Amendment 4, a proposal to ensure access to abortion in the state before fetal viability or if medically necessary. 66% of respondents indicated that they plan to vote in favor of the measure, significantly exceeding the 60% threshold required for its approval in November.
The latest polls conducted for the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November indicate a slight advantage for the Democratic candidate over the Republican. This marks a new scenario following Harris's official designation as the Democratic candidate. According to the specialized site FiveThirtyEight, it would be the first time that polls show a lead for the Democratic candidacy.
The political analysis and polling blog, which weighs various electoral surveys in the United States, currently shows a slight advantage for Harris over Trump, at 1.5%, and detects a similar shift in key states.
Understanding the Miami-Dade Poll Results
Here are some frequently asked questions and answers to help understand the implications of the poll results in Miami-Dade County.
What is the significance of Kamala Harris leading in Miami-Dade County?
Harris’s lead in Miami-Dade County indicates a shift in voter sentiment, highlighting potential Democratic strength in an area that has been a Republican stronghold in recent years.
How reliable is the poll conducted by MDW Communications?
The poll, conducted by a reputable Democratic consulting firm, has a margin of error of 4.6% and surveyed 1,071 likely voters, making it a fairly reliable indicator of current voter preferences in Miami-Dade.
Does a lead in Miami-Dade guarantee a statewide win in Florida?
No, a lead in Miami-Dade does not guarantee a statewide win. Historical data, such as Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, shows that winning Miami-Dade does not necessarily translate to a Florida victory.
What impact does the support for Amendment 4 have on the upcoming elections?
Strong support for Amendment 4, which aims to ensure access to abortion, could mobilize voters and influence election outcomes by energizing the electorate around this key issue.