The latest polls for the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November indicate a slight edge for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over Republican Donald Trump. This marks a new development following Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the race and the official nomination of Harris as the Democratic candidate. According to the specialized site FiveThirtyEight (also known as 538), it is the first time that polls show the Democratic candidate in the lead.
The political analysis and polling blog, which aggregates various U.S. electoral surveys, now shows a narrow advantage for Harris over Trump, with a 1.5% lead. This change is also observed in key battleground states. The analysis considered different polls conducted across the country from July 24 until this past Sunday. Initially, Harris had a 0.8-point lead, which has now expanded to 1.5 points (45.1% for Harris versus 43.6% for Trump).
The site 538 was founded on March 7, 2008, by analyst Nate Silver as a polling aggregator and blog. Named after the number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College, the blog was acquired by The New York Times in August 2010 and renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and ESPN.com contributor. The new publication launched on March 17, 2014, and has since covered a wide range of topics, including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. According to Wikipedia, operations were transferred from ESPN to sister company ABC News (also owned by The Walt Disney Company) in 2018.
During the U.S. primaries and presidential elections of 2008, FiveThirtyEight compiled poll data using a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in baseball statistics to "weight polls with comparable demographic data." The site and its founder are mainly known for their statistical election forecasting models, including the 2012 presidential election, where FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states.
FiveThirtyEight has garnered many awards, including the Bloggie Awards for Best Political Blog in 2009 and the Webby Awards for Best Political Blog in 2012 and 2013. In 2016, under ESPN ownership, FiveThirtyEight won the award for Best Data Journalism Website from the Global Editors Network.
Following Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from the presidential race for the upcoming November 5 election, the president expressed his support for his vice president, Kamala Harris. "Democratic colleagues, I have decided not to accept the nomination and will focus all my energy on my duties as president for the remainder of my term," Biden stated in a message posted on his personal social media account.
"My first decision as the party's candidate in 2020 was to choose Kamala Harris as my vice president. It has been the best decision I've made," the president affirmed, endorsing his current vice president, the first woman to hold that office in U.S. history. "Today, I want to offer all my support and backing for Kamala to be our party's candidate this year. Democrats: it's time to unite and defeat Trump. Let's do it," Biden concluded.
In her first week of campaigning, Harris raised $200 million. Her team announced that most of the donations (66%) came from first-time contributors in the 2024 election cycle, who donated after President Biden exited the race. Michael Tyler, the campaign's communications director, stated in a memo that "the momentum and energy behind Vice President Harris are real," predicting that "this election will be very close and decided by a small number of voters in just a few states."
Eight days after taking the torch from Biden following his withdrawal from the presidential candidacy, the 59-year-old attorney has garnered around 170,000 volunteers to support her campaign.
Key Insights on Kamala Harris's Lead Over Trump
In light of Kamala Harris's recent lead in the polls, here are some key questions and answers that provide further insight into this significant political development.
Why did Joe Biden withdraw from the presidential race?
Joe Biden decided not to accept the nomination to focus on his duties as president for the remainder of his term.
What is the significance of Kamala Harris's fundraising efforts?
Kamala Harris raised $200 million in her first week of campaigning, with 66% of donations coming from first-time contributors, indicating strong grassroots support.
How accurate are FiveThirtyEight's election forecasts?
FiveThirtyEight is renowned for its statistical election forecasting models, having correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states during the 2012 presidential election.